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博碩士論文 etd-0606118-144119 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0606118-144119
論文名稱
Title
運動計量學延伸應用:左撇子及技巧風格對美國終極格鬥冠軍賽勝率影響
An extended application of Sportsmetric :How Left-handed and mixed martial arts styles influence Ultimate Fighting Championship outcome
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
57
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2018-06-29
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2018-07-06
關鍵字
Keywords
綜合格鬥、羅吉斯迴歸、賠率、技巧風格、慣用手、終極格鬥冠軍賽、運動計量學
Ultimate Fighting championship, Mixed Martial Arts, Sportsmetric, hand preference and style, odds, logistic regression
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5835 次,被下載 73
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5835 times, has been downloaded 73 times.
中文摘要
綜合格鬥為為一種允許運用各種不同武術的搏擊運動,源起於巴西的Vale Tudo,相較於籃球、棒球等歷史悠久的運動,綜合格鬥年為近20年興起的運動,目前在全球漸漸盛行。隨著科學的進步,許多運動皆借助計量學輔助其訓練,本研究希望能借助計量對總何格鬥進行分析,研究不同慣用手及技巧風格是否會對勝率造成影響,期望能以科學方式佐證,輔助訓練的方式。
本研究以美國終極格鬥冠軍賽聯盟(UFC)為研究主體,UFC為現今全球綜合格鬥最高殿堂,透過網路爬蟲的方式抓取選手資料及比賽數據共3062場比賽觀察值,並利用羅吉斯迴歸分析,探討何種因素會影響其勝率。研究主要發現左撇子選手對上右撇子選手時能顯著提升勝率,而在技巧風格中,則以Middle型選手對於提升勝率效果最佳,Striker型選手則為顯著降低勝率型風格。
本研究也加入其他控制變數包含手長,年齡,過往比賽場數,擊打防禦率,摔技防禦率與賠率。研究結果發現手長相對愈長其勝率顯著提升,年齡相對愈大其勝率顯著降低,過往比賽場數用以代表其比賽經驗,則沒有顯著性,擊打防禦率與摔技防禦率相對愈高皆顯著提升勝率,最後則是代表專家觀點的賠率,其結果為非常顯著,表示本研究之其他變數並沒有被莊家納入考量。
Abstract
The study empirically investigates the factors, including fighters hand preference and mixed martial arts style ( Striker or Middle or Grappler ) , affecting the winning rate of Mixed Martial Arts competitions. We crawled the data of fighters and contests from UFC ( Ultimate Fighting Championship ) official website and some MMA platform website by R Language; we used logistic regression to analyze these data. The results show that left-handed fighters increase their winning rate while they confront right-handed fighters; in addition, the results also indicate that Striker is the worst style in UFC, Striker decrease the winning rate while they confront Middle and Grappler. We also found that the fighters with longer reach, younger age, higher strike and takedown defense rate can increase their winning rate. Furthermore we add odds into our model, turns out it significantly reject H_0, which means we found some factors that aren’t considered by dealer.
目次 Table of Contents
論文審定書 i
誌謝 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
目錄 v
圖次 vii
表次 viii
1.前言 1
1.1研究背景 1
圖1. UFC 2013-2015收入 2
圖2. 2017年運動品牌價值 2
1.2研究動機 3
1.3研究問題 4
2.文獻回顧 5
2.1 mixed martial arts 5
2.2慣用手 6
2.3 臂展長度 13
2.4年齡 14
2.5 賠率 17
3.研究方法 19
3.1前言 19
3.2資料來源 19
3.2.1 美國終極格鬥冠軍賽(UFC)官方網站 19
3.2.2 Sherdog網站 21
3.2.3 BestFightOdds網站 22
3.3變數解釋 22
3.3.1 應變數:比賽勝負 22
3.3.2 主要自變數 23
3.3.3控制變數 24
3.4分析工具 28
3.4.1羅吉斯迴歸模型(Logistic Regression Model) 28
4.研究結果 30
4.1敘述統計 30
4.1.1選手資料集 30
4.1.2比賽資料集 33
4.2 Correlation table 37
4.3羅吉斯回歸分析 38
5.結論 42
5.1研究結論與建議 42
5.1.1先天因素 42
5.1.2後天因素 42
5.1.3賠率因素 43
5.2研究限制與未來方向 43
參考文獻 References
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