再融資風險的領域有許多傑出的探討，像是 Acharya et al. (2011) 與 Gopalan
et al. (2014) 對於再融資風險對企業的信評、償債能力等有著重大的貢獻。我們
以台灣上市櫃共計 1863 間企業為樣本，研究台灣企業再融資風險與違約機率以
及投資策略的關係。我們的實證結果顯著支持我們的假設，再融資風險上升時會
造成台灣企業的違約風險顯著上升。尤其是金融危機時期，再融資風險對違約風
險的影響更為顯著。另外我們發現，再融資風險對投資策略產生顯著的負相關。
公司規模較大的企業較容易因再融資風險上升而降低企業投資，而規模小的企業
則是因平常的現金儲備較多，因此較不會因再融資風險上升而減少投資。但是規
模較小的企業因為收入較差，無法創造穩定的現金流，因此違約風險明顯比規模
較大的企業高出許多。

There are many famous papers about rollover risk in finance. Acharya et al. (2011)
and Gopalan et al. (2014) have made significant contributions to the firm's credit rating
and solvency on the rollover risk. We study the relationship between rollover risk and
default risk by taking a total of 1863 listed companies in Taiwan. Our empirical results
strongly support our hypothesis that the default risk will significantly increase as the
rollover risk rise up. The impact of rollover risk on default risk becomes more
significant especially during the financial crisis. In addition, we find that rollover risk
has a significant opposite influence on investment strategy. The bigger firms are more
likely to reduce their corporate investment level as the rising of the rollover risk, while
smaller firms are less likely to reduce their investment due to reserve more cash.
Because of poor revenue, smaller companies can not create stable cash flows and the
default risks are significantly higher than the larger ones.

論文審定書 ……………………………………………………………………… i
誌謝 ……………………………………………………………………………… ii
中文摘要 ………………………………………………………….….…….…… iii
英文摘要 ………………………………………..………………………………. iv
第 一 章 前言 ……………………………………………………………………. 1
第 二 章 文獻回顧與探討 ……………………………………………………… 3
第 三 章 研究方法及步驟 ………………………………………………………. 5
3.1 主要變數 …………………………………………………………………. 5
3.2 迴歸模型 …………………………………………………………………. 7
第 四 章 實證結果 ………………………………………………………………. 8
4.1 敘述統計與相關係數矩陣 ………………………………………………. 8
4.2 破產機率與再融資風險的關係 …………………………………………. 9
4.3 信用品質對再融資風險的影響 …………………………………………. 10
4.4 投資與再融資風險的關係 ………………………………………………. 11
第 五 章 穩健性測試 …………………………………………………………. 13
5.1 違約風險替代變數 ………………………………………………………. 13
5.2 稅後淨利的替代變數 ……………………………………………………. 14
第 六 章 結論 ……………………………………………………………………. 14
參考文獻 …………………………………………………………………….…… 16
附錄 ………………………………………………………………………………... 19

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