2014年11月7日所舉行的2014年台北市長選舉電視辯論創下了歷年台灣電視辯論的最高收視，參與電視辯論的兩位候選人柯文哲與連勝文，以政治素人的身分為該屆選舉增添了許多話題與關注性。多數過去文獻表示，以挑戰者身分或是支持率落後的候選人傾向於使用負面競選，本文以此為出發點，以2014年台北市長選舉電視辯論為取材，探究不同支持率的候選人競選策略之差異以及正負面競選對於選民偏好的影響，是否真的能達到對候選人本身有利的效果？
本文藉由內容分析法探討兩位不同支持率候選人在電視辯論中發言訊息的不同，並且透過實驗研究，觀察不同支持率的候選人使用正面及負面競選策略對於選民的偏好變化影響。研究結果表示，在電視辯論中，支持率低的候選人有較高的比例使用負面競選，然而，透過進一步地實驗研究發現，支持率低的候選人不論在正面競選及負面競選的效果上皆不如支持率高的候選人，尤其是負面競選甚至會讓支持率低的候選人傷己更多。因此得到本文結論，對於支持率高的候選人而言，正負面競選皆是對己有效的策略，但對支持率低的候選人而言，應選擇正面競選多於負面競選。

2014 Taiwanese Taipei Mayoral Debates held on November 7 set up a new record of debates’ ratings. Two candidates attending the debates, Ko Wen-Che and Lien Sheng-Wen, are their first time being a candidate that attracted much attention and interests by media and citizens. Researchers in the past claim that the candidate who is a challenger or with low approval ratings tend to use much negative campaign strategies. Based on this viewpoint, this study used 2014 Taiwanese Taipei Mayoral Debates as an example to compare different approval ratings’ candidates’ campaign strategies and to explore how positive and negative campaign strategies influence voters’ preference. Do campaign strategies which candidate use actually have good effect on the candidate himself/herself?
In this study, we use content analysis to compare two different approval ratings’ candidates’ speeches in the debate and experimentation to observe how positive and negative campaign strategies influence voters’ preference. The result of this study exhibits that the candidate with low approval ratings has higher proportion of using negative speeches in the debate; however, according to the experimental result, we find that the effect of using positive and negative speeches by low approval ratings’ candidate is not as good as high approval ratings’ candidate. Moreover, negative speeches by low approval ratings’ candidate will cause much bad effect on himself than on his competitor. In conclusion, high approval ratings’ candidate can use both positive and negative campaign strategies, but for low approval ratings’ candidate, he/she should use much positive and less negative campaign strategies.

第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究動機與目的…………………………………………..1
第二節 研究背景…………………………………………………..4
第三節 章節分配…………………………………………………..7
第二章 文獻探討與研究假設…………………………………………10
第一節 電視辯論的傳播效果..…………………………………...10
第二節 候選人的競選策略……………………………………….15
第三節 研究假設…………………………….……………………22
第三章 研究設計…………………………….………………………..26
第一節 個案選擇：2014年台北市長選舉………………………26
第二節 內容分析法與實驗研究………………………………….31
第三節 研究限制…………………………….……………………46
第四章 內容分析與實驗結果…………………………….…………..48
第一節 候選人電視辯論的競選策略的內容分析……………….48
第二節 實驗結果：自變數對依變數的影響……………………54
第三節 實驗結果：共變異數的影響…………………………….59
第五章 結論……………………………………………….…………..62
第一節 研究發現…………………………….……………………62
第二節 研究檢討與建議…………………………….……………63
參考文獻…………………………….………………………………….65
附錄一…………………………….………………………………….…69
附錄二…………………………….………………………………….…72

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