「紅隊」或「藍隊」是對美國中國問題專家的分類，然而紅藍隊的劃分近年已開始遭受質疑。本文就希望藉由整理美國著名紅隊學者沈大偉的中國研究達到認識沈大偉的中國觀和探討以紅藍隊區分學者是否妥當等目的。本文主要採取文獻分析法和文本分析法來解讀沈大偉對中國的觀察。首先分別蒐集沈大偉的研究文獻，接著按照不同議題及時間加以分類，發現沈大偉無論對中國對外關係或內部治理相關議題的看法都隨時間有著不同的變化。這證明了學者即便在同一議題上的立場也可能隨中國改變政策而有所演變，用某時期的論述加以分類並不適當。另外，沈大偉的中國黨政研究所引起爭議還顯示他紅隊學者的身分可能使外界只關注他對中國的肯定而忽略他提出的批判。本文同時比較沈大偉與其他紅隊學者們的研究，結果顯示同陣營學者對同一議題可能相當不同的觀點，即便預測結果相同，推論的過程也有不小差異。綜上所述，本文結論認為紅藍隊分類容易使我們錯誤解讀學者的研究且不足以區分學者。

" Red Team " and " Blue Team " is a popular classification system for American-China experts. However, this Red-Blue division has been questioned in recent years. The purpose of this study is to examine the conception of China adopted by the leading American China expert, David Shambaugh, who is usually considered as a member of Red Team. It then critically evaluates the Red-Blue division. This thesis concludes that the impression that Shanbaugh is Red Team does not hold well. Past readers cite his approval of the Communist Party's strength but fail to attend to his qualification. This thesis further compares Shambaugh's perspective with other presumably Red Team scholars and traces their different views on same issues. Even where they draw similar conclusions, they rely on different inferential processes.

論文審定書 i
論文謝辭 ii
中文摘要 iii
英文摘要 iv

第壹章 緒論01
第一節 研究目的及背景01
第二節 問題意識04
第三節 文獻回顧05
第四節 研究方法及限制15
第五節 章節安排16

第貳章 沈大偉的觀點—中國對外關係18
第一節 中美關係18
第二節 中國與其他國家關係31
第三節 中國戰略安全觀38

第參章 沈大偉的觀點—中國內部治理45
第一節 中國黨政45
第二節 中國軍事71
第三節 中國經濟76

第肆章 紅隊學者的比較—沈大偉、藍普頓和謝淑麗82
第一節 藍普頓的研究介紹82
第二節 謝淑麗的研究介紹91
第三節 比較三位紅隊學者的異同96

第伍章 結論107


參考文獻115

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沈大偉原著，汪亮譯，2003，〈美中關係新穩定：原因與結果〉，《世界經濟與政治》，(10): 44-48。

沈大偉原著，朱杰進譯，2004，〈中國、美國與正在演變中的亞洲秩序〉，《外交學院學報》，(4): 47-50。

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沈大偉，2005，〈演進中的亞洲地區體系〉，《外交評論：外交學院學報》，(4): 24-25。

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沈大偉原著，鮑世奮、張沛校譯，2011，〈2011年的美中關系:從脆弱到實質性穩定〉，《國際展望》，(6): 91-126。

沈大偉原著，呂增奎、王新穎譯， 2012，《中國共產黨：收縮與調適》，北京：中央編譯出版社。

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許少民，2013，〈全球參與者、身分困境與全球性大國—評《中國走向全球：羽翼未豐的大國》〉，《國際政治研究》，(3): 176-184。

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