安倍晉三政府推動的澳洲蒼龍級潛艦、印度US-2水上飛機武器出口，是地球儀外交與國家安全改革背景下日本戰略轉型的重要個案，著眼於多面向的國家利益。外交戰略面針對美日同盟強化與多邊外交，透過尖端科技分享、互操作性、後勤整備和零件供應實現特定目標的戰略合作，例如美日澳網路、太空領域合作，美日印澳海上安全合作等。武器出口另一個重要目標是國防工業改革，即透過進入全球供應鏈、海外市場營銷促進國際化轉型。個案是日本政府首次出口大型武器裝備的新挑戰。而具不同立場與權力的政策行為者之間的合作，成為日本能否有效推動個案的前提。例如對於武器出口政治影響的計算、在外交戰略中的角色，政官行為者對於抵銷交易的掌握及協作，以及制度能否創造國防企業參與誘因。
　　經由個案過程與政策行為者分析，本研究認為日本武器出口為「政治主導下的有限分工」決策模式。官邸基於戰略外交推動個案，然而在國家安全保障會議與武器出口流程下，政治主導無法解決抵銷交易引起的國家利益衝突，省廳也未能實現充分因應個案抵銷交易的合作。經產省實質審查權是政治主導的制約，防衛省權力與政策工具不足，外務省缺乏武器出口與外交政策整合的經驗。作為全球國防市場新進入者，武器出口賦予日本掌握新戰略機會與多元利益的可能，惟其利益由決策體系處理兩個議題所決定：個案所需要的國防工業國際化支援、伴隨的地緣政治權力平衡問題。武器與軍事科技之於更宏觀政治目標的可能性，由政策行為者之於科技、產業面向的能力及在制度下互動產生的國家能動性所決定。

The export of Sōryū-class submarine and US-2 Amphibious Aircraft, promoted by the Abe administration, are critical cases of strategic transformation pertinent to Japan’s panoramic diplomacy and national security reform aimed at multiple national interests. The strategy aims at strengthening the US-Japan alliance and multilateral diplomacy such as the US-Japan-India-Australia cyberspace/outer space cooperation, and the US-Japan-India-Australia maritime security cooperation. Another goal is to promote defense industry internationalization through access to global supply chains and overseas markets. For the Japanese government, it is a challenge to export large-scale defense equipment. Cooperation among policy players with different perspectives and jurisdictional power is a necessary condition. Calculations of political influences, the adopted role in diplomatic strategy, and player collaboration in offset deals are all important variables.
I argue that “limited Kantei diplomacy” is the decision-making model of Japanese arms export. The Kantei promoted the case based on strategic diplomacy. However, under the National Security Council and the arms export process, the political leadership could not resolve the conflicting interests caused by the offset deal, and the bureaucrats failed to achieve cooperation and respond to the situation adequately. METI’s censorship is a hinderance to Kantei`s dominance, and the MOD’s power and policy tools are insufficient. The MOFA lacks the experience of arms export and foreign policy integration. As a new entrant to the international defense market, Japan has received new chances to grasp strategic opportunities and diversified interests through arms trade. The interests nonetheless depend on how the government deals with two issues: internationalization of the defense industry and accompanying geopolitical dynamics.

論文審定書 i
誌謝 ii
中文摘要 iv
英文摘要(Abstract) v
圖次 viii
表次 ix
第一章 緒論 1
第一節　研究動機與目的 1
第二節　研究背景 4
第三節　研究方法 9
第四節　研究流程與章節安排 10
第五節　研究範圍與研究限制 13
第二章 文獻回顧 19
第一節　現實主義下的國家利益 19
第二節　國家利益衝突下的日本安全與外交政策 35
第三節　國家利益衝突下的日本武器出口 48
第三章 政策行為者的國家利益與權力 58
第一節　首相官邸－美日同盟下的日本戰略外交 58
第二節　外務省－安全角色提升下的廣博性外交 62
第三節　防衛省－制度權力與國際挑戰下的武器出口 68
第四節　經產省－產業利益與貿易保護優先下的武器出口 78
第五節　經團連－商業計算與產官合作下的武器出口 84
第六節　小結 90
第四章 日本－澳洲蒼龍級潛艦個案 97
第一節　日澳戰略夥伴關係 97
第二節　日澳潛艦國際合作計畫 105
第三節　日澳洲潛艦計畫－決策模式與個案意涵 126
第五章 日本－印度US-2水上飛機個案 134
第一節　日印戰略夥伴關係 134
第二節　日印US-2水上飛機國際合作 143
第三節　日印水上飛機計畫－決策模式與個案意涵 159
第六章 結論 166
第一節　武器出口與日本安全外交政策轉型 166
第二節　不同國家利益下的日本武器出口 169
第三節　日本武器出口決策模式 173
第四節　日本武器出口調整方向 176
第五節　研究貢獻和展望 178
參考文獻 181
中文部份 181
英文部份 184
日文部份 201
附錄 211
附錄一：深度訪談專家與問題 211

圖次
圖2 1 「防衛裝備移轉三原則」出口審查流程 54
圖3 1 經團連提出之美日國防工業合作模式（2012年） 89
圖4 1 SEA1000計畫競爭評估程序(CEP) 118
圖4 2 日本SEA1000投標提案（2015年） 124
圖5 1 US-2水上飛機民間轉用方案 147

表次
表1 1 日本政府「武器輸出三原則」補充說明（1972-1981年） 5
表1 2 論文研究田野調查說明表 16
表2 1 現實主義各學派國家利益定義 23
表2 2 日本戰略路線之國家利益與手段 43
表2 3 「防衛裝備移轉三原則」與「武器輸出三原則」比較表 53
表3 1 〈防衛生産與技術基盤戰略〉中的防衛裝備取得形式 74
表3 2 日本防衛裝備與技術國際合作列表 77
表3 3 武器出口操作性程序 83
表3 4 經團連「武器輸出三原則」政策建議（2010年提出） 88
表3 5 政策行為者武器出口國家利益立場 93
表4 1 日本潛艦船體與搭載武器取得形式 108
表5 1 世界主要水上飛機比較表 145

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網際網路
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郭育仁，2014/4/24。〈日本新武器出口政策淺析〉，《台北論壇》，<http://140.119.184.164/taipeiforum/view/136.php/>
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許善品，2019/3/21。〈平衡外交－澳大利亞的最佳選擇〉，《FT中文網》， <http://big5.ftchinese.com/story/001081961>。
2014/ 11/ 16。〈G20：美日澳三國呼籲和平解決海事糾紛〉，《BBC中文》， <https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2014/11/141116_g20_maritime_disputes>。
2016/8/30。〈美印簽署軍事後勤協定 抗衡中國崛起〉，《BBC中文網》，<http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2016/08/160830_indai_usa_military_agreement>。
2017/ 8/16。〈印美欲在外交國防層面建立“2x2”新對話機制，已醞釀兩月〉，《環球網》，<http://world.huanqiu.com/article/2017-08/11135188.html>。
2018/3/20。〈搶千億大單！洛馬獨家授權「印度製造」F-16〉，《中時電子報》，<http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20180320003045-260417>。
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課堂記錄
郭育仁口述，陳鼎尹整理，2011/12/6。〈社會科學研究方法課堂記錄〉，中山大學中國與亞太區域研究所（高雄）。
青井千由紀口述，陳鼎尹整理，2019/12/23。〈戰略溝通課堂記錄〉，中山大學中國與亞太區域研究所（高雄）。
青井千由紀口述，陳鼎尹整理，2019/12/19。〈論文指導課堂記錄〉，中山大學中國與亞太區域研究所（高雄）。

訪談資料
陳鼎尹，2014/8/5。當面訪談，柴田晃芳，常葉大學（静岡）。
陳鼎尹，2014/8/8。當面訪談，西山淳一，未來工學研究所（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2014/8/13。當面訪談，飯田將史，防衛省防衛研究所（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2014/8/14。當面訪談，前田宏子，PHP研究所（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2015/7/16。當面訪談，前田宏子，PHP研究所（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2015/7/17。當面訪談，飯田將史，防衛省防衛研究所（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2015/7/21。當面訪談，渡部恒雄，東京財團（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2015/7/23。當面訪談，川島真，東京大學（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2015/7/27。當面訪談，高木誠一郎，日本國際問題研究所（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2015/7/27。當面訪談，山口昇，東京財團（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2015/7/29。當面訪談，西山淳一，未來工學研究所（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2015/8/3。當面訪談，神保謙，Canon戰略研究所（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2015/8/3。當面訪談，角南篤，政策研究大學院大學（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2015/8/3。當面訪談，小原凡司，東京財團（東京）。
陳鼎尹，2017/7/15。當面訪談，郭育仁，國立中山大學日本研究中心（高雄）。
陳鼎尹，2019/10/24。當面訪談，郭育仁，國立中山大學日本研究中心（高雄）。

英文部份
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日文部份
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五百旗頭真，2010。《戦後日本外交史》。東京：有斐閣アルマ。
外務省，2014。《平成26年版外交青書》。東京：外務省。
外務省，2016。《平成28年版外交青書》。東京：外務省。
安倍晋三，2006。《美しい国へ》。東京：文藝春秋。
防衛廳，2002。《防衛庁技術研究本部五十年史》。東京：防衛廳。
防衛省，2012。《平成24年版防衛白書》。東京：防衛省。
防衛省，2015。《平成27年版防衛白書》。東京：防衛省。
松村昌廣，2000。《米国覇権と日本の選択―戦略論に見る米国パワー・エリートの路線対立》。東京：勁草書房。
柴田晃芳，2011。《冷戦後日本の防衛政策－日米同盟深化の起源》。札幌：北海道大学出版会。

專書論文
佐藤丙午，2015。〈グローバル化する防衛産業と輸出管理〉，鈴木一人編，《技術・環境・エネルギーの連動リスク（シリーズ 日本の安全保障 第7巻）》。東京：岩波書店，頁165-202。

期刊
ジョン・パーマ(John Palmer)，2010/3。〈日本の防衛産業は今後如何にあるべきか？〉，《防衛研究所紀要》，第12 卷第2・3合併號，頁115-145。
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山崎元泰，2015/1。〈「そうりゅう」型潜水艦の輸出実現に向けて : 日豪安全保障協力は新たな時代ヘ〉，《改革者》，56卷1號，頁42-45。
松村昌廣，2017/7。〈日豪同盟の幻影－豪州における「そうりゅう」型潜水艦輸入論争〉，《問題と研究》，第46卷第3號，頁65-92。
松村博行，2005/3。〈武器輸出3原則の緩和を巡る一考察〉，《立命館平和研究》，第6號，頁119-130。
松村博行，2016/3。〈防衛生産・技術基盤の改革と外部技術へのアクセス〉，《社会情報研究》，第15號，頁79-89。
桜林美佐，2015/4。〈防衛省初の試み「防衛装備庁」新設－主役は部隊&隊員だ〉，《月刊テーミス》，頁78-79。
桜林美佐，2016/9。〈防衛装備移転をめぐる昨今の状況 防衛装備移転三原則の閣議決定から2年半を経て〉，《輸出管理の情報誌》，第165號，頁113-118。
原崎亜紀子，2018/3。〈防衛装備・技術協力とその知的財産戦略〉，《防衛研究所紀要》，第20卷第2號，頁61-85。
等雄一郎，2012/12。〈豪米防衛貿易協力条約－防衛生産の国際相互依存の制度化〉，《外国の立法》，254號，頁200-220。
福好昌治，2012/5。〈「武器輸出三原則」緩和で開く国際共同開発新時代〉，《丸》（潮書房），65卷5號，頁55-63。
福好昌志，2017/3。〈武器輸出は国家プロジェクト！日本に大手の防衛企業はない "武器輸出解禁"防衛産業は儲かるか？〉，《軍事研究》，52卷3號，頁196-206。
櫻川明巧，1995/3。〈日本の武器禁輸政策－武器輸出三原則の国会論議をめぐって〉，《国際政治》，第108号（武器移転の研究），頁84-100。

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衆議院，2015/4/24。〈第189回国会衆議院安全保障委員会会議錄第9号〉，《国会会議録検索システム》，<http://kokkai.ndl.go.jp/SENTAKU/syugiin/189/0015/18904240015009.pdf>。
衆議院，2016/3/8。〈第190回国会衆議院安全保障委員会会議錄第3号〉，《国会会議録検索システム》，<http://kokkai.ndl.go.jp/SENTAKU/syugiin/190/0015/19003080015003.pdf>。
眾議院，2017/3/16。〈第193回国会眾議院安全保障委員会会議錄第4号〉，《国会会議録検索システム》，<http://kokkai.ndl.go.jp/SENTAKU/syugiin/193/0015/19303160015004.pdf>。
航空機武器宇宙産業課，2012/11。〈小型民間輸送機等開発調査－事業評価用資料〉，《経済産業省》，<https://www.meti.go.jp/policy/tech_evaluation/c00/C0000000H24/121129_koukuuki/koukuu6-2.pdf>。

網際網路
白石隆，2012/6/18。〈武器出口三原則的修改與日本的援緬行動〉，《走進日本》，<https://www.nippon.com/hk/column/f00008/>。
自民党，2012/12。〈政権公約〉，《自民党》，<https://www.jimin.jp/election/results/sen_shu46/pr_pamphlet/>。
西山淳一，2014/5/27。〈武器輸出の経済学　産業の実像－国内市場に守られてきた日本企業　「防衛のＴＰＰ」で国際競争へ〉，《週刊エコノミスト》，第92卷第24號。
経団連，2004/7/20。〈今後の防衛力整備のあり方について－防衛生産・技術基盤の強化に向けて〉，《経団連》，<https://www.keidanren.or.jp/japanese/policy/2004/063.html>。
経団連，2010/7。〈新たな防衛計画の大綱に向けた提言〉，《経団連》，<https://www.keidanren.or.jp/policy/2010/067honbun.pdf>。
経団連，2012/7/17。〈経団連日米防衛產業協力に關する共同聲明〉，《経団連》，<http://www.keidanren.or.jp/policy/2012/059.html>。
経団連，2015/9。〈防衛産業政策の実行に向けた提言〉，《経団連》，<https://www.keidanren.or.jp/policy/2015/080_honbun.pdf>。
半沢尚久，2017/5/31。〈救難飛行艇輸出が暗礁　インドの熱意冷め頓挫の恐れ　解禁から３年、実績ゼロ〉，《産経新聞》，<https://www.sankei.com/politics/news/170531/plt1705310005-n1.html>。
半田滋，2018/8/26。〈初の武器輸出？インドが「日本製の高性能飛行艇」US2購入を決定か〉，《現代ビジネス》，<https://gendai.ismedia.jp/articles/-/57198?page=3>。
谷田邦一，2016/12/19。〈救難飛行艇の輸出はまたも空振り。その原因は？〉，《論座》，<http://webronza.asahi.com/politics/articles/2016121400004.html>。
松尾芳郎，2015/3/11。〈インド海軍向け飛行艇US-2iが正式契約へ、防衛装備輸出の第一号〉，《Tokyo Express》，<http://tokyoexpress.info/2015/03/11/%E3%82%A4%E3%83%B3%E3%83%89%E6%B5%B7%E8%BB%8D%E5%90%91%E3%81%91%E9%A3%9B%E8%A1%8C%E8%89%87us-2i%E3%81%8C%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%A5%91%E7%B4%84%E3%81%B8%E3%80%81%E9%98%B2%E8%A1%9B%E8%A3%85%E5%82%99/>。
1976/2/27。〈第077回国会予算委員会第18号〉，《国会会議録検索システム》，<http://kokkai.ndl.go.jp/SENTAKU/syugiin/077/0380/07702270380018a.html>。
2010/11/14。〈TPP、11年11月の妥結目指す　首脳会議で方針確認〉，《日本経済新聞》，<https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXNASFK1400T_U0A111C1000000/>。
2012/1/21。〈自衛隊のコスト、航空機や戦車、艦艇などを開発・製造する防衛産業の実態とは〉，《週刊東洋経済》，<http://toyokeizai.net/articles/print/8455>。
2012/4/24。〈水陸両用飛行艇の輸出活動を本格化－4月1日付で「飛行艇民転推進室」を設置〉，《新明和工業株式会社》，<http://www.shinmaywa.co.jp/news/p_news2012_0424.html>。
2015/11/16。〈海上自衛隊、4月のUS-2離水失敗事故の原因は「操縦上の過誤」〉，《Fly Team》，<https://flyteam.jp/news/article/56843>。
2016/1/4。〈豪向け潜水艦「輸出仕様でない」＝独と差別化－日本大使〉，《時事通信社》，<http://www.jiji.com/jc/zc?k=201601/2016010400703&g=eco>。
2016/11/17。〈インドへの飛行艇輸出も空振り 安倍首相の“人災”が原因か 重要〉，《日刊ゲンダイ》，<https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/news/193961/1>。
2018/6/22。〈新明和、”安定志向”から海外市場狙い”攻め”の姿勢〉，《WING》，<http://www.jwing.net/news/2544>。
2019/11/6。〈最新鋭潜水艦「とうりゅう」進水　海自、ディーゼル推進で世界最大級〉，《產經新聞》，<https://www.sankei.com/politics/news/191106/plt1911060034-n1.html>。