受全球化競爭激烈、景氣循環速度加劇、金融環境動盪頻繁的影響，政府預算緊縮且各單位資源分配不均下，容易衍生出複雜且多樣的社會問題，因此近年來社會創新的概念蓬勃發展，創造出社會投資、社會影響力等概念。
過去社會問題大多仰賴政府編列預算及透過非營利組織對外募款來解決，但募款資金來源常為不穩定且非持續性的捐贈。起源於英國的社會效益債券(Social Impact Bond, SIB)開始不斷的被討論，以成果付費的機制加上多方合作夥伴的關係，能提供有效的監督機制，進而提升資金的使用效率，擴大受益族群。
近年來「高風險家庭」的問題不斷的被討論，因為許多複雜的原因導致家庭功能無法發揮作用，身處於該環境中的青少年往往也會陷入階級複製的情況中。因此本研究將探討高風險家庭青少年的學習行為，並以屏東縣某機構安置的高風險家庭青少年作為主要的研究對象，透過吸收馬可夫鏈及事件研究方法，計算青少年們預期的安置輔導時間及順利自安置機構結案的機率；另外亦使用蒙地卡羅方法對學生進行抽樣，得到一個畢業機率平均數為0.68的機率分配，並參考零息債券的定價方式，計算得到SIB發行價格約為$71.3。最後也加入政府採購法中總包價法的概念結合社會效益債券的評價機制，以整體安置的高風險家庭青少年結案機率做為SIB最終績效的訂定的參考，設計出一套應用於高風險家庭青少年教育的SIB，並說明計畫給付的標準及給付金額的設算。提供一個新型態解決社會問題的方法，並建構台灣發行社會效益債券的方向。

In recent years, due to insufficient government budgets, many social problems have arisen. In recent years, the concept of social innovation has flourished, creating many new notions such as social investment and social influence. Social Impact Bond (SIB) is one of them. SIB, which originated from the United Kingdom, has been continuously discussed because of its effective monitoring mechanism through providing the payment by results and multi-stakeholder partnerships characteristics, hence, improve the efficiency of the use of funds and expanding the beneficiary group.
This study aims to explore the learning behavior of high-risk families youths by targeting an institution in Pingtung. By absorbing Markov Chain and event study methods, the study calculates the expected placement counseling time and the rate of successful graduation from the agency. Besides, Monte Carlo and bond pricing methods are also added to the price of the SIB to be issued. Finally, it is calculated that the issue price of SIB should be set at $71.3. The concept of the payment by total price is also utilized and the graduation rate of high-risk families youths placed by the agency is employed as a measure of the final payment of the SIB. This research not only provides a new way to solve social problems but also construct Taiwan's direction to issue SIB in the future.

論文審定書 i
摘 要 ii
Abstract iii
Contents iv
List of Figures vi
List of Tables vii
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background Information 1
1.2 Research Purpose 3
1.3 Research Process 5
Chapter 2. Literature Review 6
2.1 Basic Theory of Markov Chain 6
1.Definition of Markov Chain 7
2.Absorbing Markov Chain 9
2.2 Social Impact Bond 11
1.Structure of Social Impact Bond 12
2.Responsibilities and Obligations of Multi-stakeholder Partnership 14
3.SIB’s Payment Mechanism 16
2.3 Domestic High-Risk Youths Education and Employment Policies 19
Chapter 3. Research Methods 24
3.1 Introduction of the FAMILY Project 24
3.2 Application of Markov Chain in SIB 30
1.Markov Chain Modeling 30
2.The Model Development 32
3.3 Event Study Methodology 37
1.Concept of Event Study Methods 37
2.The Establishment of the Process of the Event Study Method 39
3.4 Design of Evaluation Mechanism 41
Chapter 4. Empirical Results 45
4.1 Data Source 45
4.2 Numerical Example 49
1.Construction of the Probability Transition Matrix 49
2.Estimating Student’s Progression Between Different Stages 51
3.The Expected Time a Student Spends at a Particular Level and The Expected Durition of the Study 52
4.The Graduation - Withdrawal Probability 55
4.3 Analysis and Results of Event Study 56
4.4 Evaluation Mechanism of Final Payment 60
1.SIB Pricing Calculation 63
2.Take the Payment by Total Price 66
3.Applicability and Adjustment 67
Chapter 5. Conclusions and Suggestions 69
5.1 Conclusions 69
5.2 Limitations of the Study 71
References 75

1. English literature
1. Adam, R. Y. (2015). An Application of Markov Modeling to the Student Flow in Higher Education in Sudan. International Journal of Science and Research, 4(2), 49-54.
2. Adeleke, R. A., Oguntuase, K. A. & Ogunsakin, R. E. (2014). Application Of Markov Chain To The Assessment Of Students ’ Admi ssion And Academic Per-formance In Ekiti State University. International Journal of Scientific & Tech-nology Research, 3(7), 349–357.
3. Arena, M., Bengo, I., Calderini, M., & Chiodo, V. (2016). Social Impact Bonds: Blockbuster or Flash in a Pan? International Journal of Public Administration, 39(12), 927–939.
4. Bairagi1,A. & Kakaty,S. C. (2017). A Stochastic Process Approach to Analyse Students’ Performance in Higher Education Institutions. International Journal of Statistics and Systems Volume 12, Number 2 (2017), pp. 323-342
5. Barclay, L., and Symons, T. (2013). A Technical Guide to Developing Social Impact Bonds, Social Finance.
6. Beichelt, F. (2006). Stochastic Processes in Science, Engineering and Finance.
7. Brezavšček, A., Bach, M. and Baggia, A., (2017) Markov Analysis of Students’ Performance and Academic Progress in Higher Education. Organizacija, 50(2), pp.83-95.
8. Crippa, F., Mazzoleni, M. & Zenga, M. (2016). Departures from the formal of actual students’ university careers: an application of non-homogeneous fuzzy Markov
9. Global Impact Investing Network (2018). Annual Impact Investor Survey 2018.
10. Hlavatý, R. & Dömeová, L. (2014). Students’ progress throughout examination process as a Markov Chain. International Education Studies, 7(12), 20–29.
11. McKinsey & Company (2012). From potential to action Bringing social impact bonds to the US.
12. Moody, V. R. & DuClouy, K. K. (2014). Application of Markov Chains to Ana-lyze and Predict the Mathematical Achievement Gap between African American and White American Students. Journal of Applied & Computational Mathemat-ics, 3(161).
13. OECD (2019). Social Impact Investment 2019.
14. RAND Europe (2011). Lessons learned from the planning and early imple-mentation of the Social Impact Bond at HMP Peterborough.
15. Social Finance (2013). A Technical Guide to Developing Social Impact Bonds.
16. Social Finance(2016). Developing Social Impact Bonds.
17. Tijms, H. C. (2003). A First Course in Stochastic Models. Technometrics (Vol. 47). Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
2.中文文獻
1. 沈中華、李建然(2000)，「事件研究法財務與會計實證研究必備」，華泰文化事業公司
2. 周賓凰、蔡坤芳(1997)，「台灣股市日資料特性與事件研究法」，《證券市場發展季刊》第9期，p1-p27。
3. 林姿君(2016)，「社會效益債券機制設計與成本效益–以長期照顧為例」，碩士論文，國立中山大學財務管理研究所。
4. 高麗鈞(2013)，「高風險家庭處遇整合困境之研究-台灣中部五縣市社工員的觀點」，碩士論文。東海大學社會工作研究所
5. 張守青(2014)，「合作式中途班中輟生復學適應之研究─ 以屏東縣飛夢林學園為例」，碩士論文，國立屏東教育大學教育行政研究所。
6. 楊智斌(2008)，道路工程校規範契約示範案例。
7. 董欣妮(2017)，「弱勢青年就業之社會效益債券機制設計與SROI分析」，碩士論文，國立中山大學財務管理研究所。
8. 鄭義(2015)。社會效益債券(SIB)在臺實施應用之研擬－以「青年就業」與「照顧服務」為例，勞動部勞動力發展署委託研究計畫。
9. 鄭義(2019)。促進特定對象及就業弱勢者就業之社會效益債券制度規劃與契約書設計，勞動部勞動力發展署委託研究計畫。
10. 鄭麗珍(2011)。「兒少保護社會工作」，洪葉文化
11. 賴冠杰(2015)，「青少年就業之社會效益債券機制設計－成本效益分析」，碩士論文，國立中山大學財務管理研究所。
12. 顏詩穎(2015)，「社會效益債券之財務模型與償付機制設計－應用SROI分析」，碩士論文，國立中山大學財務管理研究所。

3.網路部分
1. 行政院主計總處-就業、失業統計專區
https://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=45100&ctNode=5624&mp=1
2. 勞動部勞動力發展署-投資青年就業方案(108 ~ 111)
https://www.taiwanjobs.gov.tw/Internet/2019/youth_jobs/more.html
3. 衛生福利部統計處-兒童及少年高風險家庭關懷輔導處遇服務執行概況
https://dep.mohw.gov.tw/DOS/cp-2978-13984-113.html
4. 教育部國民及學前教育署 國中中輟生人數統計資料
https://www.k12ea.gov.tw/
5. 財團法人善慧恩社會慈善基金會網站
https://gwg.eoffering.org.tw/
6. 逆風少年大步走網站
http://www.youthempower.org.tw/
7. Social impact bond，Emma Tomkinson，https://emmatomkinson.com/
8. 全國法規資料庫：機關委託專業服務廠商評選及計費辦法
https://law.moj.gov.tw/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=A0030076
9. 行政院公共工程委員會–主管法規查詢系統：政府採購法
http://lawweb.pcc.gov.tw/EngLawContent.aspx?lan=C&id=60&KW=%e6%94%
bf%e5%ba%9c%e6%8e%a1%e8%b3%bc%e6%b3%95