本研究以中國上海證券交易所A股之製造業、零售百貨業及農林漁牧業作為研究對象，採用固定效果追蹤資料 (panel data) 迴歸模型，探討2010年至2017年期間其商業信貸與銀行融資間之關係。而中國自2008年起，金融機構實施差別存款準備率，政府針對欲扶植產業及中小企業提供政策性融資輔助，使其市場資金供給量增加。故本研究將問題分為兩部分，首先探討商業信貸與銀行融資間是否存在替代效果並受規模效果影響。而過去文獻顯示當貨幣緊縮時期，市場資金緊縮，使得商業信貸與銀行融資間替代效果將增強。故本文進一步探討中國在2012年至2015年實施貨幣緊縮政策下，政府政策性融資資金注入，商業信貸與銀行融資間關係將產生何變化。
實證結果證實製造業、零售百貨業及農林漁牧業其商業信貸與銀行融資間皆存在替代效果並受規模效果影響，其中，製造業及零售百貨業其小公司替代效果敏感性較高；相反的，農林漁牧業則是大公司替代效果較為敏感，顯示政府改善”小農”其小規模及不經濟的資金供應，有助於小公司其商業信貸與銀行融資之擴張。AP/COGS使用量則可觀察到貨幣緊縮下，不分產業，小公司係數絕對值遠大於大公司，顯示大公司較不依賴商業信貸。而貨幣緊縮政策下對AP/COGS與AR/sales的影響，可觀察到製造業呈負向關係，可能存在夥伴互助效果；零售百貨業呈正向關係，顯示零售業資金不足，需提高對供應商的AP；農林漁牧業則不顯著，顯示因為政府政策提供其資金充裕，財務上無需依賴對供應商的AP。

This study takes the manufacture industry, retail industry, and the agriculture, industry on Shanghai Stock Exchange of China as the subjects. We use the fixed effect panel data regression model to explore the relationship between Trade credit and Bank financing from 2012 to 2017. In China, financial institutions have implemented required reserve ratio since 2008. The government that provides policy financing assistance to specific industry and Small and Medium Enterprise makes increase the supply of funds. Therefore, this study divides the problem into two parts. First, we discuss whether there is a substitution effect between Trade credit and bank financing and is affected by size effect. According to the literature in the past, in a tight monetary period, the substitution effect between Trade credit and bank financing will be enhanced. As a result, this paper further predicts that under monetary tightening policy from 2012 to 2015, the substitution effect of Trade credit and bank financing will be weakened and be affected by the size effect due to the injection of government policy financing funds.
The empirical results confirm that all industries have substitution effects between trade credit and bank financing and are affected by size effects. Agriculture industry has relatively high sensitivity substitution effects for large enterprises, showing that the government's improvement of the small and uneconomic funding supply of "small farmers" will help small enterprises to expand their trade credit and bank financing. Using AP/COGS, it can be observed that under monetary tightening, regardless of industry, the absolute value of the coefficient of small enterprises is larger than large enterprises, indicating that large companies are less dependent on trade credit.

論文審定書 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
Contents iv
Figure v
Table vi
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Section 1 Research background and motivation 1
Section 2 Research Purpose and Process 5
Section 3 Industry Introduction 6
Chapter 2 Literature Review 7
Section 1 Trade Credit 7
Section 2 System change and Crisis occurrence 10
Chapter 3 Research method 12
Section 1 Research framework 12
Section 2 Data sources 12
Section 3 Variable definition 13
Section 4 Modeling and Prediction 16
4.1 Selection of research models 16
4.2 Empirical Model and prediction 18
Chapter 4 Empirical result 20
Section 1 Descriptive statistics 20
Section 2 Collinearity test 25
Section 3 Empirical result 30
3.1 Empirical analysis of manufacturing 30
3.2 Empirical analysis of retail department store industry 31
3.3 Empirical analysis of agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry 32
3.4 Summary 33
Chapter 5 Conclusion 36
References 38

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