||This study takes economic status of domestic manufacturing industries and each main trading area as investigated objects and adds factors of exchange rates to research relation of mutual influence between business cycles, exchange rates and industries.|
To reach the research purpose, this study collected the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2014, with sample data of 60 quarters in total, including indexes of production in each domestic manufacturing industry, financial ratios of listed companies, economic indexes in main trading area and effective exchange rate index of New Taiwan dollar as study variables. Making use of unit root test, Granger causality test and regression analysis method confirmed the correlation between each variable.
The research result found: 1. Between the main trading areas in Taiwan, there were one way and two-way different causal relationships on economic status which showed that with the frequent contact of international trade, economic status of each country was closely linked. 2. For business cycles in main trading area, it had obvious influence on the aspect of yields of industries which exporting proportion of Taiwan manufacturing industries was higher while the influence on persons whose proportion of selling inside was higher was not so obvious. 3. On the aspect of financial ratios, economic status in main exporting area had generally limited influence on financial ratios of listed companies of our country, but economic status in Taiwan had more obvious influence. 4. On the aspect of exchange rates, when real valid exchange rates of New Taiwan dollar depreciated, it had inverse relation on most manufacturing industries in Taiwan which represented that depreciation of exchange rates was beneficial to Taiwan exporting industries. In addition, it discovered that exchange rates had different deferred effects upon different industries. That was when exchange rates changed, most of them would not react on yields of industries and financial ratios immediately, but they reacted after a quarter or even two quarters.