||With the rapid growing of economic activities and populations, available land resources have become unable to meet the demand. Originally considered as a mere frontier between land and sea, the coastal zone has become an essential zone for human development. As any kind of human exploitation of the coastal zone is likely to induce some changes in the local environment. Gradual and permanent alterations in coastal ecosystems have led to losses in abundance in numerous species, such as the black-faced spoonbill. To mitigate the impact, the government declares the North bank of the Tsengwen River Estuary as a protected area. However, land-use changes outside the protected area, such as the development of fish ponds or changes in the spatial patterns of farmlands and bodies of water, are still affecting birds’ survival.|
This study is based on landscape ecology, using several analytical tools including Geographic Information System (GIS), Spatial Analysis, Landscape metric and Markov Chains. Changes in landscape structure at Chi-Gu between 2003 and 2008, and long-term birds census have been combined in order to discuss the relations between land-based activities and bird’s abundance. Furthermore, a Markov chain was built to predict the most likely land-use pattern in 2013 and its eventual impacts on birds’ conservation. The results of this study show that the reduction of spatial segregation in Chi-Gu has, on average, mitigated the adverse effects on birds. However, further analysis showed that migrant birds are increasing whereas resident birds are decreasing. We therefore suggest that the land-uses, closely related to resident birds’ conservation, such as forests, should be managed with special care in order to assure an effective protection of both migrant and resident birds.