Title page for etd-0819114-161758


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URN etd-0819114-161758
Author Ai-jhen Tsai
Author's Email Address No Public.
Statistics This thesis had been viewed 5350 times. Download 258 times.
Department Political Science
Year 2014
Semester 1
Degree Master
Type of Document
Language zh-TW.Big5 Chinese
Title Partisan Mobilized Reasoning and the Prediction of Closet Partisans' Party Identification
Date of Defense 2014-09-11
Page Count 191
Keyword
  • closet voters
  • partisan mobilized reasoning
  • party identification
  • Abstract Researchers of partisan voters have‭ ‬been assuming‭ ‬that‭ ‬there is a solid difference between‭ ‬“independent”voters and‭ ‬partisan voters‭ (‬including leaners‭). ‬This is hardly a case in the Taiwan context‭,‬‭ ‬a democracy of two-party presidential system‭, ‬where over 40‭ ‬percent of voters are partisans but claiming independent‭ ‬in most of telephone surveys‭.‬‭ ‬Pollsters‭, ‬researchers‭, ‬and journalists‭ ‬have been calculating the distribution of party supporters by either‭ ‬omitting‭ ‬these‭ ‬“independent”‭ ‬voters‭ ‬due to the unavailability of the data‭, ‬or simply apply counterintuitive formula to guess the distribution of the respondents with missing data‭. ‬This study takes‭ ‬avoid the definition of not-so-well-defined‭ ‬“independent”‭ ‬voters but aiming at‭ ‬these“invisible”‭ ‬or‭ ‬“closet”‭ ‬voters and at‭ ‬finding‭ ‬out their partisan orientation behind their ambivalent answers to telephone surveys‭. ‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬
    To do so I took‭ ‬a‭ ‬series of‭ ‬steps‭, ‬including qualitative and quantitative ones‭. ‬First I used a‭ ‬representative sample‭, ‬conducted in January 2014‭ (‬N=1,072‭) ‬in Taiwan via a RDD telephone survey‭. ‬This survey includes‭ ‬the‭ ‬conventional‭ ‬party identification question plus a serious‭ ‬of‭ ‬theory-based‭ ‬alternative questions‭ ‬that I evaluated to be triggering respondents’‭ ‬mobilized reasoning about the two major political parties‭,‬‭ ‬Kuomingtang‭ (‬KMT‭) ‬or Democratic Progressive Party‭ (‬DPP‭). ‬I‭ ‬then created an‭ ‬index for partisan respondents‭ ‬of the two political camps‭, ‬and applied the score patterns to‭ ‬the closet respondents‭. ‬In another follow up survey‭ (‬March 2014‭) ‬that‭ ‬targeted at‭ ‬the closet respondents‭ ‬I‭ ‬found that the correctness of prediction‭ ‬using the index‭ ‬is about 70%‭. ‬I then targeted and interviewed the most ambivalent closet voters and explored how their partisan mobilized reasoning was‭ (‬and failed to be‭) ‬triggered by the alternative survey questions‭. ‬I‭ ‬concluded with‭ ‬a‭ ‬few‭ ‬survey questions‭ ‬future‭ ‬electoral‭ ‬studies can use for probing‭ ‬closet voters‭. ‬The rich implications of the findings‭ ‬for improving the accuracy of predicting partisan votes‭, ‬the debates about the characteristics of independent voters‭, ‬and the development of partisan mobilized.
    Advisory Committee
  • Da-Chi Liao - chair
  • Wen-chun Chen - co-chair
  • Cheng-shan Liu - advisor
  • Files
  • etd-0819114-161758.pdf
  • Indicate in-campus at 1 year and off-campus access at 1 year.
    Date of Submission 2014-09-19

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