||This research explores whether “party identification, candidate orientation, ethnic identification and issue orientation,” the four intermediate variables of election, are correlated to the results of Taipei mayor elections in 2002 and 2006. The data in this research are mainly based on the interview broadly carried out to collect facts for “the study on democratization through election” executed by Professors Huang Chi and Huang Siu-Twen in 2002 and 2005. It is with these data that this research compares the voting behavior of the voters in the two mayor elections in an attempt to find out the deviation of election for further studies.|
Each individual voter has of his own a variety of social backgrounds which inevitably form to some extent a connection with each of the four intermediate variables. In examination of the connection just mentioned, it is obvious that of all the voter’s backgrounds the place of birth is probably the most potential and influential, and has a significant connection with each of the four factors. However, an evaluation of the connection between the voting preference and the four factors indicates that the four factors are apparently convincing in justification of the results of the second Taipei mayor election in 2006. In addition, a detailed analysis of the connections between voter’s social backgrounds and his voting preference shows that the voter’s place of birth plays an important role in making his voting preference. Other social backgrounds except the voter’s educational level are slightly related to the voting preference in the Taipei mayor election in 2006.
Based on the analysis mentioned above, it is understood that there are many variables which will influence the voting preference. Of all the intermediate variables, however, the four factors of party identification candidate orientation ethnic identification and issue orientation are perhaps most crucial and decisive. By means of the analysis and evaluation of the four factors functioning in the recent elections, it is discovered that the people here in Taiwan are relatively better educated and have made a tremendous progress in democracy. It seems that Taiwan has already developed into a nation of two-party politics.