||Taiwan’s DRAM has high technology, strong capital, and standardized products, but it still can not be escaped from economic fluctuations. With this impact, Taiwan’s DRAM has faced the problem of cash flow imbalance; moreover, the problem is going from bad to worse.|
The study is based on the view of system dynamics and focuses on fixed assets and investment skills of the investment-cash flow, operating cash flow, and business cycles of Taiwan’s DRAM. It considers the features of dynamic complex, including loop, time delay and nonlinear and constructs a system dynamics model. The model would apply key elements to suppose an investment strategy and then to mimic an investment situation. The aim of the study will figure out the suitable investment strategy to assistant Taiwan’s DRAM making the most of its inputs.
The study discovers: (1) the best investment strategy for 10 year is 5.0 (to invest three fixed asset sets); for 30 year is 6.0 (to invest manufacturing skills and one fixed asset set) and 7.0 (to invest manufacturing skills and two fixed asset sets), (2) the most effective element for investment strategy in the long run is to invest fixed asset sets rather than upgrading manufacturing skills, (3) to keep investing in semiconductor fabrications would endanger Taiwan’s DRAM itself; hence the superior limit investment quantity for fixed assets are five to six sets,(4) the best investment timing for Taiwan’s DRAM is the first two business cycle season, and (5)when Taiwan’s DRAM faces economic downturn, the effective investment strategy for it is few. If Taiwan’s DRAM doesn’t change its industrial structure, it will face the high risk of loss.