||The characteristics of the bulk carrier industry are capital-intensive and higher risks. The decisions of purchasing prices of new bulk carriers determine the fixed operating cost affecting the competitive capacity and the profit margin of the corporation. The researcher classified bulk carriers into Cap Size, Panamax Size and Handy Size and then chose new-building bulks price and second-hand bulks price as study objects. This thesis analyzed the probable factors affecting the prices of new-building bulks and second-hand bulks.|
This study adopts rent (including one-year forward rent, three-year forward rent and spot rent) and freight indexes (including BCI,BPI and BHI) of different bulk sizes as independent variables , and used unit root test, vector autoregressive model to analyze that whether there existed the significant correlation among these factors mentioned above and the price of new-building bulks and second-hand bulks or not in the short term and long term. In addition, the researcher analyzed the relationship between new-building bulks and second-hand bulks. In the further, the researcher used the Granger causality test to survey whether existed the lead-lag relationship among indexes, and the result can used as reference for the corporate management for making decisions.
The following are empirical results identified by this thesis:
1. Unit root test identified that the time series data among indexes and bulk prices are non-stationary series. So the researcher transferred these data into stationary series by first order difference method to make the conclusion more accurately.
2. Johansen cointegration test identified that there existed closed relationship among bulk prices, rent, and the volatility of indexes, and these data had stationary equilibrium in the long run.
3. The volatility of spot rent and forward rent had better explanatory power to second-hand bulk price and new building Panamax size bulk, but had less explanatory power to the other.
4. We can regard the volatility of indexes as leading indicator of volatility of second-hand bulk price.
5. The Granger causality test identify that there existed two way causation among rents of shipping market ,indexes and second-hand bulk price, but this result was not found among these factors mention above and new-building bulk price.
In conclusion, the author of the thesis suggested that the corporate management can consider volatility of rents, indexes as their reference before purchasing second-hand bulks. However, the new-building bulks price was another story. It didn’t correlate with other variables significantly, but can only be explained by its past variation.