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URN etd-0016114-100634 Author Yu-Bo Tseng Author's Email Address No Public. Statistics This thesis had been viewed 5361 times. Download 38 times. Department Economics Year 2013 Semester 2 Degree Master Type of Document Language zh-TW.Big5 Chinese Title An Empirical Analysis of Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in Taiwan Date of Defense 2013-07-12 Page Count 103 Keyword Vector Error Correction Model Economic Growth Natural Population Growth Rate Per Capita GDP Population Structure Abstract Global population structure is morphing from a one with high fertility and high mortality rates into a one with low birth and low mortality rates. It means longer life expectancy and economics with large aging population. Taiwan makes no exception in thus perspective. The main aim of this paper, therefore, is to investigate how demographic changes affect the economic growth of Taiwan.

In this paper, we follow the theoretical framework is provided by Bloom and Williamson (1998). The time series of Taiwan data (1955~2011) is used to analyze demographic the impacts of different demograhic factors impact on the economic growth of Taiwan. The variables under investigation includes per capita gross domestic product (GDP), the natural population growth rate, the employed labor force, the ratio of the total educational expenditures to GDP, the ratio of the gross capital formation to GDP and the total dependency ratio.

At first, the unit root test is employed to assume that all variables are I (1) non-steady state time series, and then the Johansen maximum likelihood estimation method is used to obtain a set of co-integration vectors. These co-integration results show the long-term relationship of investigated variables as follows: natural population growth rate and per capita GDP have a positive relationship; employed labor force, the ratio of the gross capital formation to GDP and per capita GDP have a positive relationship; the ratio of total educational expenditures to GDP and per capita GDP have a negative relationship and finally, the dependency ratio and per capita gross domestic product have a negative relationship.

After the co-integration test, the vector error correction model, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis are employed to analyze the causality relationship between variables and the short-term adjustment process. The results show that the per capita GDP, the natural population growth rate, the ratio of total educational expenditures to GDP and the proportion of gross capital formation to GDP are the endogenous variables of the economic growth. On the other hand, the employed labor force of the economic growth and total dependency ratio are the exogenous variables of the economic growth. Furthermore, the increase of the employed labor force and total educational expenditures to GDP strengthens the per capita GDP growth in the current period, which means that short-term employed labor force and the ratio of total educational expenditures to GDP are the factors that promote economic development. The increase of the employed labor force in the previous period does little to enhance the ratio of total educational expenditures to GDP in the current while the increase of the proportion gross capital formation to GDP enhance the ratio of total educational expenditures to GDP in the current period. Finally, the increase of the per capita GDP and employed labor force enhances the proportion gross capital formation to GDP in the current period.Advisory Committee Chun-Ping Chang - chair

Yung-nian Tung - co-chair

Chien-Chiang Lee - advisor

Files Indicate in-campus at 5 year and off-campus access at 5 year.

etd-0016114-100634.pdf Date of Submission 2014-01-16