博碩士論文 etd-1117108-091123 詳細資訊


[回到前頁查詢結果 | 重新搜尋]

姓名 林士修(Hsih-Shiu Lin) 電子郵件信箱 E-mail 資料不公開
畢業系所 企業管理學系研究所(Business Management)
畢業學位 碩士(Master) 畢業時期 97學年第1學期
論文名稱(中) 實質選擇權應用在工程專案估價作業之研究  
論文名稱(英) none
檔案
  • etd-1117108-091123.pdf
  • 本電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。
    請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。
    論文使用權限

    電子論文:校內校外均不公開

    論文語文/頁數 中文/123
    統計 本論文已被瀏覽 5560 次,被下載 0 次
    摘要(中) 在國內景氣低迷不振,業務重心逐漸移向國際市場的同時,海外市場的拓展卻未讓工程公司在獲利上隨著營業額同步增加。因為在經營環境劇烈變動下,工程公司現行憑藉經驗、直覺假設及簡單計算公式的估價作業,不易讓經理人認知未來不確定性的風險,也難以事前擬訂彈性管理方法來因應,因而造成嚴重的成本侵蝕。
    為了提升估價作業中對抗未來不確定性的洞察力及管理彈性,本文在傳統估價過程中加入實質選擇權的方法與觀念,並建構出具有實質選擇權價值的風險成本模型。經由實證數據說明,選擇權流程除有助於觀察到不確定風險來源外,更指引了進行彈性管理的方向,使得對抗風險不再是毫無頭緒或只憑主觀的工作經驗來認知。
    此外,本文也建議了幾種將選擇權價值應用於風險成本的做法與時機,不過,在運用選擇權價值前,經理人對於選擇權價值必須要清楚的體認到:選擇權價值不是一個可以做為會計計算的真正價格;實質選擇權流程也不能保證可以轉虧為盈,其最大的意義在於提供管理者或經理人一個可以期望的目標;若要獲得額外的選擇權價值,經理人必須要落實彈性管理才能達成。
    企業在導入與使用選擇權評估流程時,必須注意到各專案選擇權之間的交互作用與其對於企業所能貢獻綜效的有效整合,如此才讓企業所掌握的選擇權總值最大化,並成為有力的競爭利器。只是要形成這樣的效果除了企業組織的共識與高階管理階層的承諾外,該流程也必須隨著外界環境的變化不斷的應用與修正,才能讓每一次的演化都凝聚成企業的策略優勢。
    摘要(英) The sources of construction business for local firms have been shifted gradually to oversea market over years due to domestic economic recession. Nevertheless, the revenue seems standstill against to the growing contract amounts since the cost has been encroached on the present cost estimation procedure which based on personal instincts, experiences and simple formula that out of ability to identify the future uncertainties and frame the flexible management in advance under drastic business environment.
    To enhance the managerial insight and flexibility of evaluation process for the future uncertainties, we proposed and constructed a real optional model of risk cost upon traditional cost evaluation process. As a result of experiment, the sources of uncertainties and the flexibilities for management could be observed and directed clearly to against the risk without subjective or instinctive recognization anymore.
    Seveal occasions of application of real option value have been suggested in this study several important key points should be emphasized before using it: neither profit/loss nor price for accounting can be promised with the real option value; rather an expectable goal for managers to achieve. Appropriate flexible activities should be studied and approached before making decisions to acquire real option value.
    Maximized overall real option value could be a powerful competition tool for any company that tries to adopt real option approach to profit estimation if the interaction and synergy of real option among individual projects could be integrated effectively. Under the support of authority and interorganization commitment, the real option process should be learned and modified evolutionary according to dynamic business environment then becomes a strategic advantage.
    關鍵字(中)
  • 二項式定價模型
  • 實質選擇權
  • 成本估價
  • 工程專案
  • 關鍵字(英)
  • BOPM
  • Real Option
  • Cost Estimation
  • Construction Project
  • 論文目次 摘要 i
    Abstract ii
    致謝詞 iii
    目錄 iv
    圖目錄 vi
    表目錄 viii
    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究背景 1
    第二節 研究動機與目的 5
    第三節 論文架構 10
    第二章 工程專案估價作業概述與實例說明 13
    第一節 工程專案估價作業概述 13
    第二節 X公司的專案估價作業流程 16
    第三節 X公司對於不確定性的管控與專案風險成本 22
    第三章 實質選擇權文獻探討 26
    第一節 實質選擇權的起源與應用 26
    第二節 實質選擇權分析流程 30
    第三節 實質選擇權價值的計算 34
    第四章 以實質選選擇權建構風險成本模型 42
    第一節 由傳統分析到實質選擇權分析 42
    第二節 蒙地卡羅模擬與敏感度分析 46
    第三節 確定選擇權集合及相關波動度 49
    第四節 展開二元樹及計算選擇權價值 53
    第五節 選擇權價值與風險成本的應用 56
    第五章 實證過程及驗證討論 59
    第一節 個案背景介紹與數據整理 59
    第二節 蒙地卡羅模擬與敏感度分析 64
    第三節 確定選擇權集合及相關波動度 73
    第四節 展開二元樹及計算選擇權價值 81
    第五節 實證結果及選擇權價值應用之探討 94
    第六章 結論 101
    第一節 研究貢獻 101
    第二節 研究限制與未來研究方向 102
    第三節 實質選擇權在工程專案上的效用 104
    參考文獻 107
    一、中文部份 107
    二、英文部份 108
    三、網站部份 112
    參考文獻 一、中文部份
    丁建智,1999,營建財務管理,台北:詹氏書局。
    估價組,1996,「估價作業與估價工程師」,中鼎月刊,208期:4-7。
    余俊彥,2003,「推動與世界接軌-期政府速謀獎勵營造業方案」,中鼎月刊,289期:27-30。
    余俊彥,2005,「董事長新春談話-再向前邁進一步就到了」,中鼎月刊,307期:5-8。
    余俊彥,2006,「董事長新年談話-大鵬展翅的新時局」,中鼎月刊,319期:4-6。
    吳義川、林春和,2002,「工程成本管理的概述」,中鼎月刊,278期:8-16。
    黃亦筠,2006,「營建業海外討生活」,天下雜誌,357期:123-125。
    簡秀蓉,2007,「中鼎余俊彥布局中東搶油元」,今周刊,2007.02.12:48-50。
    顏錫銘譯,Tom Copeland, Vladimir Antikarov著,2003,實質選擇權,台北:華泰文化事業股份有限公司。

    二、英文部份
    Akinci, B. & F. Martin, 1998, Factors affecting contactors’ risk of cost overburden. Journal of Management in Engineering, vol.14, no.1:67-76
    Akintoye, A., 1995, Just-in-time application and implementation for building material management. Construction Management and Economics. vol.13, no.2:105-113.
    Akintoye, A., 2000, Analysis of factors influencing project cost estimating practice. Construction Management & Economics. vol.18, no.1: 77-89.
    Black, F. & M. Scholes, 1973, The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, vol.81, no.3:637-654.
    Boute, R., E. Demeulemeester & W. Herroelen, 2004, A Real options approach to project management. International Journal of Production Research, vol.42, no.9:1715-1725.
    Bowen, P. A . & P. J. Edwards, 1985, Cost modeling and price forecasting: practice and theory in perspective. Construction Management & Economics. vol.3, no.3:199-215.
    Bowman, E. H. & G. T. Moskowitz, 2001, Real option analysis and strategic decision marking. Organization Science, vol.12, no.6:772-777.
    Brennan, M. J. & S. E. Schwartz, 1985, Evaluating natural resource investments. Journal of Business, vol.58. no.2:135-157.
    Carr, R. I., 1989, Cost estimating principles. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. vol.115, no.4:545-551.
    Copeland, T., T. Keller & J. Murrin, 2000, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies. New York, USA: John Wiley & Sons.
    Cox, J. C., S. A. Ross. & M. Rubinstein, 1979, Option pricing: a simplified approach. Journal of Financial Economics, vol.7. no.3:229-263.
    Davey, K., 2000, Preventing project cost escalation. Engineering Management Journal. vol.10, no.4:174-181.
    Dixit, A. K. & R. S. Pindyck, 1995, The option approach to capital investment. Harvard Business Review, vol.73, no.3:105-115.
    Ford, D. N., D. M. Lander & J. J. Voyer, 2002, A real options approach to valuing strategic flexibility in uncertain construction projects. Construction Management and Economics, vol.20, no.4:343-351.
    Gunner, J. & M. Skitmore, 1999, Pre-bid building price forecasting accuracy: price intensity theory. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management. vol.6, no.3:267-275.
    Hamilton, A. C., 2004, Cost management. AACE International Transactions. p12.1-12.12.
    He, K., 2007, Real options application in project evaluation practice. Cost Engineering, vol.49, no.8:16-19.
    Kester, W. C., 1984, Today’s options for tomorrow’s growth. Harvard Business Review. vol.62, no.2:153-160.
    Kodukula, P. & C. Papudesu, 2006, Project valuation using real options: a practitioner’s guide. Fort Lauderdale, USA: J. Ross Publishing Inc.
    Kulatilaka, N., 1993, The value of flexibility: the case of a dual-fuel industrial steam boiler. Financial Management, vol.22. no.3:271-280.
    Lee, C. J., 1988, Capital budgeting under uncertainty: the issue of optimal timing. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, vol.15. no.2:155-168.
    Luehrman, T. A., 1998, Investment opportunities as real options: getting started on the numbers. Harvard Business Review, vol.76. no.4:51-67.
    Majd, S. & R. S. Pindyck, 1987, Time to build, option value, and investment decision. Journal of Financial Economics, vol.18. no.1:7-27.
    Mason, S. P. & C. Y. Baldwin, 1988, Evaluation of government subsidies to large-scale energy projects. Advances in Futures and Options Research. vol.3:169-181.
    Matter, M. H. & C. Y. J. Cheah, 2006, Valuing large engineering projects under uncertainty-private risk effects and real options. Construction Management and Economics, vol.24, no.8:847-860.
    Mun, J., 2002, Real option analysis-tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions. Hoboken, USA:John Wiley & Sons.
    Mun, J., 2003, Real options analysis course: business cases and software application. Hoboken, USA:John Wiley & Sons.
    Myers, S. C., 1977, Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, vol.5. no.22:147-176.
    Ng F. P, H. C. Bjornsson & S. S. Chiu, 2005, Valuing a price cap contract for material procurement as a real option. Construction management and Economics. vol.22. no.2:141-150.
    Ogunlana, O., 1991, Learning from experience in design cost estimating. Construction Management & Economics. vol. 9, no.2:133-150.
    Pindyck, R., 1988, Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm, American Economic Review.vol.78, no.5:969-985.
    Pindyck, R. S., 1991, Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment. Journal of Economic Literature, vol.29, no.3:1110-1148.
    PMI, 2004, A guide to the project management body of knowledge. Newtown Square, USA:Project Management institute.
    Titman, S., 1985, Urban land prices under uncertainty, The American Economic Review, vol. 75. no.3:505-514.
    Trigeogis, L., 1993, Real option and interactions with financial flexibility. Financial Management, vol.22, no.3:65-77.
    Trigeorgis, L., 1996, Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation. London, UK: The MIT Press.
    Voyer, J. J., D. N. Ford & D. M. Lander, 2004, Business strategy and real options in the context of large engineering projects. Global Competitiveness Annual. vol.12, no.1:1-9.
    Yiu C. Y. & C. S. Tam, 2006, Rational under-pricing in bidding strategy: a real options model. Construction Management and Economics. vol.24. no.5:475-484.

    三、網站部份
    印度經貿資訊網,2007,「印度營造產業市場現況分析」,http://www.taitraesource.com/india/news2.asp?ID=458。
    行政院,2004,「工程顧問服務業發展綱領及行動方案」,http://www.cepd.gov.tw/upload/SECT/Industry/013@848095.6167569841@.pdf。
    AACE, 2006, What is cost engineering?, http://www.aacei.org/membership/about/whatIsCE.shtml.
    Alleman, J., 2000, Real options overview, http://www.tprc.org/abstrcts00/option.pdf.
    Hendrickson, C., 2000, Project management for construction. world wide web publication: http://www.ce.cmu.edu/pmbook/.
    ICEC, 2006, What are cost engineering, quantity surveying and project management. http://www.icoste.org/whatare.htm
    Wang T. & R. Neuville, 2005, Identification of real options in projects. http://ardent.mit.edu/real_options/Real_opts_papers.
    口試委員
  • 盧淵源 - 召集委員
  • 郭倉義 - 委員
  • 梁慧玫 - 指導教授
  • 口試日期 2008-11-04 繳交日期 2008-11-17

    [回到前頁查詢結果 | 重新搜尋]


    如有任何問題請與論文審查小組聯繫