博碩士論文 etd-0729102-145233 詳細資訊


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姓名 李慶章(Ching-Chang Lee) 電子郵件信箱 cclee@mail.stu.edu.tw
畢業系所 資訊管理學系研究所(Information Management)
畢業學位 博士(Ph.D.) 畢業時期 90學年第2學期
論文名稱(中) 即時決策支援系統模式選擇之研究
論文名稱(英) Model Selection for Real-Time Decision Support Systems
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    摘要(中) 在數位時代下,企業面對的是快速變動的經營環境,因此企業必須要能迅速回應市場的變化,即時採取因應的解決方案,才能保有競爭力。針對即時決策需求日益增加的趨勢,提升決策支援系統的功能成為可以支援即時決策的即時決策支援系統,是協助企業處理即時決策問題的一個有效途徑。本研究利用在模式管理系統中增加支援即時模式選擇功能之方式,包括提供快速搜尋與擷取模式庫中的模式,以及提供即時評估與選擇決策模式等功能,使決策支援系統可以達成俱備支援即時決策的能力。
    本研究透過文獻搜集、理論探討、模式求解分析及模擬分析等方法,針對即時決策支援系統模式選擇決策加以探討,以作為即時決策支援系統發展的依據。研究結果共獲得五個主要的成果。第一,為了可以即時評估決策模式,我們經由對模式求解過程與相關影響模式選擇因素的分析,發展出一個以時間為基礎的模式評估架構。這個架構可以幫助決策者評估在決策時間限制下,一個決策模式解輸出的品質與成本,以作為模式選擇的依據。第二,我們利用本研究所建立的即時決策模式選擇架構中的四個決策變數,發展三個模式選擇策略,提供決策者即時選擇模式時參考。第三,我們依據參數值精確度與模式解精確度的定義,以模擬分析方法來探討一個模式中各參數值精確度對模式解精確度的影響,並推導出模式解精確度函數。第四,為了可以實際瞭解即時模式選擇方法中各選擇變數的作用,以及即時模式選擇策略的應用,本研究也針對模式選擇策略進行模擬分析。模擬分析結果顯示出本研究所提出的模式選擇架構與模式選擇策略,可以達到支援即時模式選擇的目的。第五,為了提供利用部份資訊推導決策模式的能力,我們發展了一個利用部分問題資訊來擷取決策模式的方法,該方法透過模式元件間相似性的衡量來擷取個案庫中與新問題相似的模式元件,協助決策者找出可行的決策模式。
    綜合而言,本研究的成果對於即時決策支援系統模式選擇功能的發展,勾勒出一個基本的架構,對於即時決策支援系統的開發提供了一個方向與指引。
    摘要(英) In order to cope with the turbulent environments in digital age, an enterprise should response to the changes quickly. Therefore, an enterprise must improve her ability of real-time decision-making. One way to increase the competence of real-time decision-making is to use Real-Time Decision Support Systems (RTDSS). A key feature for a Decision Support Systems (DSS) to successfully support real-time decision-making is to help decision-makers selecting the best models within deadline. This study focuses on developing methods to support the mechanism of model selection in DSS.
    There are five results in this study. Firstly, we have developed a time-based framework to evaluate models. This framework can help decision-makers to evaluate the quality and cost of model solutions. Secondly, based on the framework of models evaluation, we also developed three models selection strategies. These strategies can help decision-makers to select the best model within deadline. Thirdly, according the definitions of parameter value precision and model solution precision in this study, we conduct a simulation analysis to understand the impacts of the precision of parameter values to the precision of a model solution. Fourthly, in order to understand the interaction among the model selection variables, we also simulate the application of model selection strategies. The results of simulation indicate our study can support models selection well. Finally, we developed a structure-based model retrieval method to help decision-makers find alternative models from model base efficiently and effectively.
    In conclusion, the results of this research have drawn a basic skeleton for the development of models selection. This research also reveals much insight into the development of real-time decision support systems.
    關鍵字(中)
  • 決策支援系統
  • 即時決策支援系統
  • 模擬分析
  • 決策模式
  • 模式管理系統
  • 即時模式選擇
  • 關鍵字(英)
  • Simulation Analysis
  • Real-Time Model Selection
  • Model Management Systems
  • Real-Time Decision Support Systems
  • Decision Support Systems
  • Decision Model
  • 論文目次 第一章 緒論
    第一節 研究背景……………..…………………………………………………1
    第二節 研究動機……………..…………………………………………………2
    第三節 研究目的…………………………………..……………………………5
    第四節 研究的概念性架構……………..………………………………………6
    第五節 論文結構…………………………………………..……………………9
    第二章 文獻探討
    第一節 模式管理系統與模式選擇………………………………….……….10
    第二節 即時系統……………………………………………………………....12
    第三節 決策品質的衡量….…………………………………….……………..13
    第四節 建模架構與模式表示方法……………………………………………14
    第五節 類比推論與個案推理方法……………………………………………17
    第六節 本章總結…………………………………………………….……..….20
    第三章 以時間為基礎的模式選擇
    第一節 模式選擇的基本架構與相關假設……..……………………………..23
    第二節 參數值取得時間、參數值精確度與參數值取得成本….……….…..27
    第三節 模式解精確度與求得模式解之資訊成本 .………………………….29
    第四節 模式正確度與模式解的正確度……………………………………....32
    第五節 模式解的敏感度 .…………………………………………………….35
    第六節 即時模式選擇策略..…………………………………………………..37
    第七節 模式選擇應用的範例說明….……………………………………..….41
    第八節 本章總結 .….……………………………………………….……..….52
    第四章 模式個案庫與以模式結構為基礎的模式擷取方法
    第一節 模式與問題表示方法.……………………………………………….55
    第二節 模式個案庫…………………………………………………..………..61
    第三節 模式相似性程度之衡量尺度…………………………………………63
    第四節 模式搜尋與擷取之程序 ……………………………………………..78
    第五節 個案搜尋與擷取範例………………………………………………..79
    第六節 本章總結 .….……………………………………………….……..….89
    第五章 模式解精確度函數與模式選擇策略之模擬分析
    第一節 模式解精確度函數模擬分析設計…………….…………………….91
    第二節 模式解精確度函數模擬結果..……….…………………..………..94
    第三節 模式選擇策略模擬分析………………………………………………99
    第四節 本章總結.….….……………………………………………….…..…113
    第六章 結論與建議
    第一節 結論與貢獻..………………………………………………….…..…115
    第二節 研究限制.…………………………………………………….…..…120
    第三節 後續研究方向………………………………..……………….…..…120
    參考文獻……..……………………………………………………………………..122
    附錄一 模式個案範例……..…………..……………………………………..128
    參考文獻 一、中文部分
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    黃明祥,「以語意類似程度整合物件綱目之研究」,中山大學博士論文,中華民國八十八年六月。
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    口試委員
  • 郭峰淵 - 召集委員
  • 吳仁和 - 委員
  • 林福仁 - 委員
  • 范錚強 - 委員
  • 陳鴻基 - 委員
  • 梁定澎 - 指導教授
  • 口試日期 2002-06-26 繳交日期 2002-07-29

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