許多文獻探討了金融發展與經濟成長之間的關係，一部分文獻指出金融發展的程度有利於促進經濟成長，另一部分文獻指出金融發展對於經濟成長是沒有顯著影響或負面影響。此外，尚有學者發現金融發展與經濟成長之間呈現非線性關係，例如:Lee and Wong (2005)使用門檻迴歸模型進行研究，結果顯示兩者之間的關係會受到通貨膨脹率的影響而有所不同，然而Kalyanaram and Winer (1995)指出門檻並非固定，而是有可能隨時間改變。因此本文採用Yang et al. (2019)所提出的時變門檻迴歸模型，並根據Lee and Wong (2005)的模型來研究通貨膨脹率對於金融發展與經濟成長的影響，結果顯示當以通貨膨脹率為時變門檻值時，經濟成長與金融發展之間的關係呈現非線性，並且根據其統計檢定P值 < 0.001可以得知門檻為顯著的具有時變性質。因此若忽略門檻變數會隨時間變化的特性，對於所要分析的估計結果可能會不準確。

Many literature discuss the relationship between financial development and economic growth, some of which indicate that the level of financial development is conducive to promoting economic growth, and another part of the literature indicates that financial development has no significant impact or negative impact on economic growth. Therefore, there are still researchers have found that there is a non-linear relationship between financial development and economic growth. For example: Lee and Wong (2005) used the threshold regression model for research. The result shows that the relationship between them will be affected by the inflation rate, but Kalyanaram And Winer (1995) pointed out that threshold value is not fixed or may change over time. Therefore, this paper adopts the time-varying threshold regression model proposed by Yang et al. (2019), and based on the model of Lee and Wong (2005) to study the impact of inflation rate on financial development and economic growth, the results show that when the inflation rate is a time-varying threshold, the relationship between economic growth and financial development is nonlinear, and according to its statistical test P value < 0.001, we can know that the threshold is significant has time-varying properties. Therefore, if the characteristic that the threshold variable changes with time is ignored, the estimated result to be analyzed may be inaccurate.

目 錄
論文審定書 ....................................................................................................................... i
謝詞 .................................................................................................................................. ii
中文摘要 ......................................................................................................................... iii
Abstract ............................................................................................................................ iv
目 錄 .............................................................................................................................. v
圖 次 ............................................................................................................................ vii
表 次 ............................................................................................................................ vii
第 一 章 緒論 .............................................................................................................. 1
1.1 研究背景與目的 ................................................................................................1
1.2 論文研究流程 ....................................................................................................2
第 二 章 文獻回顧 ...................................................................................................... 3
2.1 經濟成長與金融發展相關文獻 ........................................................................3
2.2 經濟成長、金融發展與通貨膨脹相關文獻 ....................................................4
2.3 時變門檻相關文獻 ............................................................................................5
第 三 章 經濟模型設定 .............................................................................................. 7
第 四 章 研究方法 ...................................................................................................... 9
4.1 單根檢定 ............................................................................................................9
4.2 時變門檻模型 ..................................................................................................14
第 五 章 實證結果與分析 ........................................................................................ 19
5.1 樣本來源及介紹 ..............................................................................................19
5.2 變數觀察 ..........................................................................................................21
5.3 單根檢定 ..........................................................................................................24
5.4 模型估計及比較 ..............................................................................................25
第 六 章 結論與建議 ................................................................................................ 31
6.1 研究結論 ...........................................................................................................31
6.2 研究建議 ...........................................................................................................32
附錄 ................................................................................................................................ 33
參考文獻 ........................................................................................................................ 34
中文文獻 .................................................................................................................34
英文文獻 .................................................................................................................34

中文文獻
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李慶男(2018)。「時間數列分析講議」。國立中山大學經濟研究所。
李怡萱(2012)。「金融發展與經濟成長，通貨膨脹的門檻效果」。國立政治大學國際
經營與貿易研究所，台北市。
吳紹銘(2012)。「 用門檻模型分析:經濟成長與匯率對 ETF 報酬的影響」。國立中山
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陳旭昇(2013)。「 時間序列分析：總體經濟與財務金融之應用(二版)」。台北，東華
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