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博碩士論文 etd-0631119-113756 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0631119-113756
論文名稱
Title
在混合頻率樣本下以殘差建構的共積變異數檢定
A Residual-Based Test for Cointegration Variance in a Mixed Frequency Sample
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
42
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2019-07-24
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2019-07-31
關鍵字
Keywords
非定態、共積、混合頻率、(共積)混合資料樣本、共積變異數
Non-stationary, Cointegration, Mixed Frequency, (Co)MIDAS, Cointegration Variance
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5774 次,被下載 91
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5774 times, has been downloaded 91 times.
中文摘要
由於收集或測量變數的成本因素, 經濟資料會在不同的頻率下取樣, 因此研究一般都是取得不同頻率的資料。本文將藉由 Miller (2014) 提 出之共積混合資料樣本模型建立共積變異數檢定, 用以擴展 Yang et al. (2014) 在相同頻率下的共積變異數檢定, 使該檢定可以使用不同頻率的
資料。
納入 CoMIDAS 模型, 以多項式權重函數將模型變為非線性模型, 解 決高頻率資料導致的參數增殖, 保留更多資料的資訊。本文藉由 Kiefer et al.(2000) 的方法推導的檢定統計式最後收斂至一布朗運動函數分配, 與 Yang et al.(2014) 所推導的相同。由於放寬使用混合頻率資料, 保留
更多的資訊會使得檢定更為強健。
蒙地卡羅模擬的結果與分析一致, 相同頻率下以及本文混合頻率下 之檢定大小的表現差不多, 檢定力則是本文較相同頻率下的更為優秀。 在高頻率期數還不大時, 檢定力表現差異不大, 期數越大, 則檢定力的表
現即差距越大。模擬結果得到本文的檢定性質更優秀。
Abstract
Economic data are sampled at different frequencies because of the cost of collecting or measuring variables. In this paper, the cointegration variance test is established by using cointegrating mixed data sampling (CoMIDAS) model introduced by Miller(2014),which is used to extend the cointegration
variance test of Yang et al.(2014) at matched sample frequency.
CoMIDAS model was included, and the model was changed into a nonlinear model by polynomial weight function, so as to solve the parameter proliferation caused by high frequency data and retain more information of data. In this paper, the test statistics derived by the method of Kiefer et al. (2000) converges to a
brownian-motion function distribution, which is the same as that derived by Yang et al.(2014). By liberalizing the use of mixed frequency data, retaining more information makes test more robust.
The results of Monte Carlo simulation are consistent with the analysis, and the test size is similar at the matched frequency and the mixed frequency, and the power is better than that at the matched frequency. When the number of high frequency periods is not large, there is little difference in the performance of power. The larger the number of periods, the greater the difference is in the performance of power.The simulation results show that the model we presented in this paper can obtain better test properties.
目次 Table of Contents
論文審定書. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... i
摘要. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
目錄. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
圖次. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi
表次. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
第1 章緒論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第1.1 節研究背景. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第1.2 節研究動機與目的. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
第1.3 節研究架構. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
第2 章文獻回顧. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
第2.1 節回顧相同頻率下的共積變異數檢定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
第2.2 節回顧CoMIDAS 模型. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
第2.2.1 節MIDAS 模型. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
第2.2.2 節CoMIDAS 模型. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
第3 章研究方法. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
第3.1 節模型設定與假設. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
第3.2 節NLS 估計的共積均衡誤差平方的漸進分配. . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
第3.3 節運用KVB 法的檢定統計式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
第4 章蒙地卡羅(Monte Carlo) 模擬. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
第5 章結論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
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