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博碩士論文 etd-0623120-145023 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0623120-145023
論文名稱
Title
天氣因子與電子商務平台產品銷售量關係-以尿布產品為例
The relationship between weather and sales of diaper on an E-commerce platform
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
56
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2020-07-15
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2020-07-23
關鍵字
Keywords
固定效果模型、追蹤資料、天氣效應、電子商務、日常快速消費品
e-commerce, fast moving consumer goods, weather effect, panel data, fixed effect
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5871 次,被下載 3
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5871 times, has been downloaded 3 times.
中文摘要
過往有許多研究探討那些影響人們消費決策的因素,而關於外在環境的探討無可厚非的就會提及到天氣。天氣為一非常特殊的自然系統,不管是對經濟活動或是日常生活皆有巨大影響力;對於零售業而言,不少產品都會因天氣狀況不同而有大幅的銷量變動,例如冷氣機、電暖器以及像是一些日常生活必需品等。

近年來,消費管道已不僅僅侷限於實體通路,時代的演進促成電商的崛起,更改變了人們的生活,在幾乎人人都有過網購經驗的現代社會,天氣是否還會影響人們在消費上的決策即是本研究欲想探究的問題。本研究以日常快速消費品-尿布為研究標的;在研究樣本單位上,筆者縮小至全台的第三級行政區位-鄉、鎮、縣轄市、區,並以距離該地最近的氣象站觀測數據做為該地天氣因子數值。資料期間為2018年10月1日至2019年10月7日,為期一年多的每日交易資料。

在控制銷售量之時間趨勢、各地0~5歲人口數後,並使用固定效果模型加以分析,而後再以季節區分和交互作用解析下,研究結果發現,電商平台上所販售之民生必需品仍有「1°C效應」,當氣溫比起平均氣溫上升1°C時,銷售量會減少0.3%,而此效應在夏季尤其明顯,並會隨著降雨量、相對濕度狀況不同而有所改變。
Abstract
There have been many studies in the past to discuss the factors that affect people's consumption decisions, some of which would focus on the weather. Weather, a very special natural system, whether it has a huge influence on economic activities or daily life. Taking the retail industry for example, many products will have large sales changes due to different weather conditions, such as air conditioners, electricity warmers and somethings like daily necessities.
In recent years, the consumption channel has not only been limited to physical channels. Online's share of total retail sales has steadily been on the rise—with ecommerce penetration, and it has also changed people’s lives. In the modern society, everyone almost has experience in shopping on the Internet. So, whether the weather still affect people’s consumption or not is the main question in this research we want to explore. In this study, diaper, one of the fast moving consumer goods, is used as the research target. We take the third-level administrative region for this research sample unit. The daily data period is from October 1st, 2018 to October 7th, 2019.
After controlling the time series of the sales volume and the number of people aged 0-5 years in the township, we use fixed effect model to analyze it. We found that there is still a "weather effect" on e-commerce platforms, such as the temperature. When the temperature rises 1°C, the sales would decrease 0.3%.
目次 Table of Contents
學位論文審定書.........i
誌 謝.........ii
摘 要.........iii
Abstract.........iv
目 錄.........v
表 次.........vi
圖 次.........viii
1. 緒論.........1
1.1 研究背景與動機.........2
1.2 研究問題.........5
2. 文獻回顧.........7
2.1 台灣電子購物及郵購產業.........7
2.1.1 快速流通消費品在電商扮演的角色.........10
2.1.2 個案電商資訊.........12
2.2 天氣對於零售業銷售數據影響.........15
2.2.1 天氣效應.........15
2.2.2 天氣效應實證研究.........15
3. 研究方法.........18
3.1 資料來源與處理.........18
3.1.1 交易紀錄資料介紹.........18
3.1.2 天氣資料取得.........19
3.1.3 天氣變數介紹.........23
3.1.4 鄉鎮市區天氣判斷.........24
3.1.5 其他控制變數.........24
3.2 分析工具.........25
3.2.1 多元迴歸的建立.........25
3.2.2 考慮時間趨勢性.........26
3.2.3 追蹤資料結構處理.........27
4. 研究結果.........29
4.1 敘述統計.........29
4.2 實證結果.........31
4.3 進階分析結果.........36
4.3.1 夏季與非夏季下模型結果.........36
4.3.2 交互作用.........37
5. 結論與建議.........40
5.1 研究結論.........40
5.2 研究建議與未來方向.........42
參考文獻.........43
參考文獻 References
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