當實施能源消費發生改變時，應分別考慮在長、短期下，對經濟成長所可能造成的影響，本研究採用非線性自我遞延回歸模型(nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model, NARDL)，針對台灣的能源消費與經濟成長的不對稱性關係進行探討，資料期間為1983年的第一季到2017年的第四季。
本研究結果顯示，台灣的能源消費與經濟成長之間存在不對稱性，並且在短期時，能源消費的負向變動對經濟成長所產生的影響，大於能源消費的正向變動對經濟成長所產生的影響，因此應注意節能政策在短期下，對經濟成長所產生的負面影響。而在長期下則相反，能源消費的正向變動大於負向變動對經濟成長所產生的影響，因此在長期下，能源消費的增加比其減少，將產生更顯著之影響。

When the energy consumption is changing, we should consider the possible influence in the long-run and short-run. This study uses nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) to analysis the case of Taiwan of asymmetric relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the period of 1983Q1-2017Q4.
The research show that there is the asymmetric relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in case of Taiwan, and the negative impact of energy consumption on economic growth is greater than the positive change in energy consumption in the short-run. Therefore, we should pay attention to the negative impact of energy conservation policies on economic growth in the short run. In the long run, the positive change in energy consumption is greater than the impact of negative changes on economic growth. Therefore, the increase in energy consumption will have a more significant impact than the reduction in energy consumption in the long run.

論文審定書 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
目錄 iv
圖次 vi
表次 vii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機 2
第三節 研究目的 3
第二章 文獻回顧 4
第一節 能源消費與經濟成長的非線性關係 4
第二節 台灣能源消費與經濟成長 5
第三章 研究方法 7
第一節 變數設定與資料來源 9
第二節 生產函數 9
第三節 單根檢定 10
第四節 最適落後期數之選取準則 12
第五節 非線性自我遞延迴歸模型 13
第六節 衝擊反應 15
第四章 研究結果 16
第一節 變數趨勢圖 16
第二節 單根檢定 17
第三節 選擇最適的落後期數 18
第四節 邊界共整合檢定 18
第五節 不對稱性檢定 19
第六節 衝擊反應 22
第五章 結論與建議 25
第一節　結論 25
第二節　建議 26
參考文獻 27

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