亞洲是近年經濟成長最快速的地區，然而亞洲各國在森林資源利用方面有著巨大的差異。例如日本與韓國的森林總面積比例偏高；但其他開發中國家因以生產初級產品為主，故森林面積持續下降。而臺灣因地質構造特別，森林資源相當豐富，且隨著社會的發展，臺灣林業面臨不同的經營方式。由於先前研究提出了「森林轉型」的概念，隨著時間的推移，國家的森林覆蓋率將隨之下降。
本研究使用臺灣行政院農業委員會林務局和AREMOS經濟統計資料庫進行綜合研究。在計量方法上，使用單根檢定、Breush-Godfrey(BP)、Breusch-Pagan(LM)、HAC估計式，探討從1979年至2018年間，臺灣於哪個時段實現森林轉型，且進一步研究臺灣主要由何種森林轉型路徑所驅動。此外，本研究亦分析顯著影響臺灣森林面積的因素為何，並根據上述三項所導出之結論藉以了解臺灣森林轉型的進程。
由實證結果得知，臺灣於1980年左右實現森林轉型，並透過「森林稀缺路徑」、「全球化路徑」及「農業集約化路徑」來驅動，且研究發現，臺灣的森林面積主要是由砍伐面積、農業生產指數、林產品出口比重與人口密度所影響，使得臺灣森林面積逐漸上升。

Asia is the region with the fastest economic growth in recent years. However, there are huge differences in the use of forest resources among Asian countries. For example, Japan and South Korea have a relatively high proportion of total forest area; But in other developing countries, where primary products are produced, forest areas continue to decline. Due to its special geological structure, Taiwan is rich in forest resources, and with the development of society, Taiwan ’s forestry is facing different management methods. As the previous study put forward the concept of "forest transition", the country's forest coverage will decline with time. Due to the special geological structure, Taiwan has abundant forest resources, and with the development of the society, Taiwan's forestry is faced with different management methods. As a result of previous research on the concept of "forest transition", the country's forest coverage will decline with time.
This research used the Forestry Bureau ,COA, Executive Yuan and the AREMOS Economic Statistics Database for a comprehensive research. In terms of measurement methods, single root test, Breush-Godfrey (BP), Breusch-Pagan (LM), and HAC estimation formulas are used.To discuss the time period during which Taiwan achieved forest transition from 1979 to 2018. And further study was conducted on what forest transformation path was mainly driven by Taiwan. In addition, this study also analyzes the factors that significantly affect the forest area of Taiwan.Based on the above three conclusions, attempts to understand the process of forest transition in Taiwan.
By the empirical result, Taiwan achieved forest transition around 1980 and was driven by the "forest scarcity path", "globalization path" and "agricultural intensification path", and the study found that Taiwan's forests mainly by deforestation, agricultural production index, the proportion of forest products export and population density has made Taiwan's forest area gradually increase.

論文審定書...............................................................i
中文摘要..................................................................ii
英文摘要.................................................................iii
目錄.........................................................................v
圖次........................................................................vi
表次.......................................................................vii
第一章 緒論.............................................................1
第一節 研究背景....................................... ..............1
第二節 研究動機......................................................3
第三節 研究目的......................................................5
第二章 文獻回顧......................................................6
第一節 森林轉型路徑文獻.......................................6
第二節 時間序列資料統計方法文獻........................8
第三章 研究方法......................................................9
第一節 單根檢定....................................................10
第二節 建立OLS迴歸模型......................................11
第三節 誤差項異質性檢定......................................12
第四節 誤差項自我相關檢定..................................13
第五節 Newey-West HAC 估計式..........................14
第四章 研究結果.....................................................18
第一節ADF單根檢定...............................................18
第二節 誤差項異質性檢定結果...............................19
第三節 誤差項自我相關檢定結果...........................20
第四節 Newey-West估計式統計結果.....................20
第五章 結論與建議..................................................25
第一節 結論.............................................................25
第二節 建議.............................................................26
第六章 參考文獻......................................................28

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