本研究以一帶一路計畫之國家以及印度，共133國為研究對象，從兩國互相之間雙邊貿易流量之現況，探討加入此計畫對雙邊貿易流量的影響。利用數據調查方式，並引用貿易引力模型(Trade Gravity Model)進行研究，並延伸使用混合橫截面數據(PCS)模型，並透過F檢定、Lagrange乘數檢定以及Hausman檢定，得知使用一般固定效果(GFE)模型為佳，時間年分從2013-2018年。本研究主要用以了解距離、人民幣國際化指數、自由經濟度指數、貿易依存度、是否為WTO成員國及是否為海上絲路國家對雙邊貿易流量的影響，並探究影響程度如何。
透過實證分析，找出影響加入一帶一路計畫之決定因素，並進一步推論上述與雙邊貿易流量之關聯性，進而判斷此計畫是否對國家有利。結果顯示：
1.距離對雙邊貿易流量成反比，但達極低點時，雙邊貿易流量會隨距離增加
2.人民幣國際化指數上升對中國成正向效益，對印度成反面效應
3.自由經濟度指數上升對中國以及印度都是反面效應
4.貿易依存度上升，表示中國以及印度若加入計畫，對國家經濟有利
5.是否為WTO成員國，若都是成員國，對中國以及印度經濟有利
6.若為海上絲路國家，對國家經濟有利

In this study, 133 countries, including the countries of the belt and road initiative and India, are taken as the research objects. From the current situation of trade flows between these two countries, the impact of joining the initiative on trade flows is discussed. Using the data survey method, and quoting the Trade Gravity Model to study, and extending the use of pooled cross-section data (PCS) model, and through the F test, Lagrange multiplier test, Hausman test, we know that the use of general fixed effect (GFE) model is the better, the time period is from 2013 to 2018. The purpose of this study is to understand the influence of distance, RMB internationalization index, free economy index, trade dependence, WTO membership and Maritime Silk Road on trade flow, and to explore the degree of influence.
Through empirical analysis, the determinants of joining the belt and road initiative are identified, and the relevance between the above and trade flows is further inferred to determine whether the initiative is beneficial to the country. The results show that:
1. Distance is inversely proportional to trade flow, but when it reaches a very low point, trade flow will increase with distance.
2. The rise of RMB internationalization index has positive effect on China and negative effect on India.
3. The rise of free economy index is a negative effect on China and India.
4. Increased trade dependence indicates that China and India will benefit the national economy if they join the plan.
5. Whether it is a member of WTO or not, and if it is all a member, it is beneficial to the economy of China and India.
6. If it is a maritime Silk Road country, it is beneficial to the national economy.

論文審定書 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 v
第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究流程與架構 3
第貳章 文獻回顧 4
第一節 中國、印度以及世界經濟 4
第二節 區域經濟夥伴關係帶來的效應 5
第三節 一帶一路的認知及分歧 6
第參章 研究方法 8
第一節 理論模型 8
第二節 模型架構 9
一、混合橫截面數據(PCS)模型 9
二、一般固定效果(GFE)模型 11
第三節 單根檢定(LLC檢定) 11
第四節 檢定方法 13
一、F檢定 13
二、Lagrange乘數檢定(LM檢定) 14
三、Hausman檢定 14
第五節 敘述性統計 15
第六節 資料來源 17
第肆章 實證研究 20
第一節 單根檢定 20
第二節 模型檢定 22
第三節 出口國為中國對應進口國為一帶一路國家(包含印度) 24
第四節 出口國為印度對應進口國為一帶一路國家 29
第五節 討論 34
第伍章 結論與建議 35
第一節 結論 35
第二節 建議及研究限制 36
參考文獻 38

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