為了解燃料(石油、煤炭與天然氣)、二氧化碳以及經濟成長三者間兩兩的相互關係，以台灣為例，用1980年-2018年這段期間的燃料進口量、二氧化碳排放量以及國內生產毛額等時間序列資料來了解變數之間是否有顯著關係。並以單根、共整合、誤差修正模型以及Granger因果關係檢定等來進行實證分析。
由實證結果得知，經濟成長對工業部門的二氧化碳排放量有明顯的單向因果關係，表示為了維持穩定的經濟成長，找出能節能減碳又不抑制經濟的政策是必要的；經濟成長與燃料進口量無雙向因果關係，與工業部門的二氧化碳排放對經濟成長無單向因果關係，主要表明台灣經濟已逐漸向第三級產業發展，第二級產業不再是主要經濟產值的來源；工業部門二氧化碳排放量與燃料進口量無雙向因果關係，主因認為是碳排放包含為維持工廠運作的電力消費而產生的二氧化碳排放。

In order to understand the interrelationship between fuel (oil, coal and natural gas) and carbon dioxide emission and economic growth, we take Taiwan as an example, using the time series data of fuel imports (oil, coal and natural gas), carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic production from 1980 to 2018 to understand whether there is a significant relationship between these variables. An empirical analysis is carried out with unit root, co-integration, error correction model and Granger causality test.
According to the empirical results, economic growth has a significant one-way causal relationship with the carbon dioxide emissions of the industrial sector, indicating that in order to maintain stable economic growth, it is necessary to find policies which can save energy and reduce carbon emission without inhibiting the economy; There is no significant causal relationship between economic growth and fuel imports, and the carbon dioxide emissions of the industrial sector has no one-way causal relationship with economic growth, which mainly shows that Taiwan's economy has gradually developed into a tertiary industry, and the secondary industry is no longer the main source for the economic output value source; There is no significant causal relationship between the carbon dioxide emissions of the industrial sector and the amount of fuel imports. The main reason is that carbon emissions include the carbon dioxide emissions generated by the electricity consumption used to maintain the operation of the factory.

論文審定 書 i
誌謝 ii
摘要 iii
Abtract iv
目錄 v
圖次 vi
表次 vii
第一章、緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機 3
第三節 研究目的 5
第二章、文獻探討 6
第三章、研究方法 10
第一節 單根檢定 11
第二節 共整合檢定 13
第三節 向量自迴歸模型 14
第四節 向量誤差修正模型 15
第五節 Granger因果關係檢定 15
第四章、研究結果 17
第一節 資料處理 17
第二節 單根檢定 17
第三節 最適落後期數 19
第四節 共整合檢定 19
第五節 向量誤差修正模型(VECM) 20
第六節 Granger因果關係檢定 22
第五章、結果與建議 23
第一節 結論 23
第二節 建議 24
參考文獻 25

中文文獻：
1.楊嘉倫(2008).二氧化碳排放量與經濟成長之關聯性分析.國立中興大學應用經濟研究所碩士論文.
2. 范志鴻(2012).OECD國家與台灣再生能源、二氧化碳排放與經濟成長之探討.逢甲大學財稅學系所碩士論文.
3. 陳旭昇.(2013).時間序列分析:總體經濟與財務金融之應用.
4. 張素麗.(2014).GDP、能源消耗與二氧化碳排放因果關係之探討—以台灣、韓國、香港、新加坡為例.中國文化大學商學院國際貿易學系碩士論文.
英文文獻：
1. Al-mulali, U., & Sab, C., N., B., C. (2012). The impact of energy consumption and CO2 emission on the economic growth and financial development in the Sub Saharan African countries. Energy, 39(1), 180-186.
2. Dicky, D, A., & Fuller, W, A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
3. Engle, R, F., & Granger, C, W, J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
4. Granger, C, W, J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
5. Ghosh, S. (2009). Import demand of crude oil and economic growth: Evidence from India. Energy Policy, 37(2), 699-702.
6. Mirza, F, M. & Afra Kanwal, A. (2017). Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Pakistan: Dynamic causality analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 72, 1233-1240.
7. Ozturk, I., & Acaravci, A. (2010). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9), 3220-3225.
8. Odhiambo, N, M. (2012). Economic Growth And Carbon Emissions In
South Africa: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 28(1), 37-46.
9. Samiullah. (2014). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Time Series
Evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(27), 82-92.
10. Sati, S, L. & Hassan, M, S. & Mahmood, H. & Shahbaz, M. (2014). Coal consumption:An alternate energy resource to fuel economic growth in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 36, 282-287.
11. Waleed, A. & Akhtar, A. & Pasha, A, T. (2017). Oil consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan. Energy Sources, 13(2),103-108.
12. Li, Z. & Cheng, H & Tian-Yao, G. (2019). Research on dynamic relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in China. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 49, 334-339.