本文以德國為例，研究經濟大緩和現象（The Great Moderation），運用Summers （2009）所改寫的馬可夫轉換模型與Primiceri (2005）提出的隨時間變動之結構向量自我回歸模型做實證研究，檢測德國大緩和的時間點與造成德國大緩和的主因。本論文的實證結果顯示，不同於其他國家緩和的時間點（1980年前後），德國大緩和的時間點為1993年第四季；然而，與大多數學者所做出來的三大現象（好運氣、存貨制度的改善、貨幣政策的實行）不同的是，權衡性的財政政策是讓德國經濟波動趨緩的主因。

In this paper, we employ Markov Switching Model in Summers（2009） to document a structural date in the volatility of Germany GDP growth. Moreover, we use a Time Varying Structural VAR with stochastic volatility model in Primiceri (2005) to examine the main causes of the Great Moderation in Germany. The break date, however, differs among countries. Most of them are in 1980s, but the break date of Germany is at the fourth quarter of 1993. Although it finds that the three main reasons lead to the Great Moderation(Good luck, inventory investment and good policy) in many literatures, it is the discretionary fiscal policy that causes the Great Moderation in Germany.

論文審定書
致謝．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．i
中文摘要．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．ii
英文摘要．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．iii
圖次．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．iv
表次．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．v
論文架構．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．1

第一章 緒論
第一節 背景．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．2
第二節 動機．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．11
第三節 目的．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．12

第二章 文獻回顧．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．14

第三章 研究流程與方法．．．．．．．．．．．．．19

第四章 模型之建構與分析
第一節 馬可夫轉換模型Markov Switching Model．．20
第二節 檢測模型Time varying structural VAR．．．23

第五章 變數的選擇與資料的處理
第一節 變數的選擇．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．26
第二節 資料的處理．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．28
第六章 實證結果
第一節 德國大緩和時間點．．．．．．．．．．．．29
第二節 誘發德國大緩和的原因．．．．．．．．．．30

第七章 結論與建議
第一節 結論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．37
第二節 未來研究之建議．．．．．．．．．．．．．38

參考文獻．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．39

附錄．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．43

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