本文針對1976-2015 年期間的46 個開發中國家的年追蹤資料進行不同外資流入形式對國內儲蓄影響的研究，過去追蹤資料的估計方法
忽略了橫段面相依，其次是係數異質性和內生性問題，於是本文透過使用Neal(2015) 動態的共同相關效應之廣義動差法(Dynamic Common Correlated Effects - Generalized Method of Moments, DCCE-GMM) 估計解決以上問題，此方法是經由Pesaran (2006) 和Chudik and Pesaran (2015)從OLS 變換成GMM/2SLS，利用變數落後期建立工具變數。此研究發現兩種問題，其一若使用Chudik and Pesaran (2015) 的未考慮內生性問題估計方法，導致忽略匯款對國內儲蓄帶來的影響；其二為匯款和官方發展援助會顯著地排擠國內儲蓄，與補充國內儲蓄的研究相互矛盾，但一致認為匯款主要用於日常消費。本研究認為需釐清匯款與官方發展援助使用用途，才能讓政府制定有效改善國民儲蓄的政策。

The study is to examine the differential impact of foreign capital inflows on domestic saving by using a panel dataset of 46 developing countries over the period of 1976-2015. The conventional estimation techniques ignore cross section dependence, parameter heterogeneous and endogenous properties and thus yield biased and inconsistent estimates. This thesis have improved the problem of estimation techniques using Neal (2015) that extend the Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach of Pesaran (2006) and Chudik and Pesaran (2015) by replacing OLS with 2SLS/GMM, and using lags to form the instrument set. The implication of current study is with two things: First, the research method that Chudik and Pesaran (2015) used was reckon without the endogenous, which caused their research ignore the effect that remittance could bring to domestic saving. Second, domestic saving is crowded out significantly by remittance and foreign aid, which is contradict with the research of supplemening domestic saving. Both researches are identified that
remittance is mainly used on daily consumption. The usage of remittance and official development assistance should be more clarify for government to make policy.

摘要. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
第 1 章緒論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 研究背景. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 研究動機與目的. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 論文架構. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
第 2 章文獻探討. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.1 實證回顧. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2 計量模型回顧. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
第 3 章模型設定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.1 變數定義. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.2 研究方法. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.2.1 檢驗方法. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
3.2.2 模型估計. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
第 4 章實證結果分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
4.1 資料來源及處理. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
4.2 實證分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
4.2.1 模型檢定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
4.2.2 模型估計. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
第5章結論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
附錄. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

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