電子商務產業近年來日益發展，各類型產品銷量皆逐漸上升，而電商平台零售業亦時常實施促銷活動吸引消費者，其中價格促銷為較常見且相對容易的促銷方式。過往評估價格促銷之效益時，多以實體商店為主，其價格促銷的天數相對較長，促銷時間間隔較短，而電子商務平台之促銷則逐漸趨向限時促銷，相對來說價格促銷天數可能僅僅一天，促銷時間間隔也較短，其效益與過往實體商店價格促銷產生之效益相當不同。
此外，評估價格促銷時，須考量到動態效果才能較為準確的估計效益，動態效果包含競爭者的折價狀況，以及跨期價格促銷影響等。筆者為了探討此問題，以A電商平台之尿布資料為例，並分析該電商平台五大熱銷品牌，其分別為幫寶適、滿意寶寶、好奇、妙而舒及日本大王GOO.N，且主要以市場響應模型中的掃描促銷模型作為研究之基礎來探討價格折價的動態影響，再利用混合效果模型來進行估計。
研究結果發現，品牌間的競爭交叉彈性雖為正相關，但幾乎沒有顯著影響，表示在短期促銷的狀況下，他牌價格促銷對特定品牌無影響。另外，價格促銷後隔日會減少銷售額，而隨著天數增加效果逐漸減弱，若考慮到跨期影響，促銷對於基本銷售額有負面效果，因此，原先在當期所增加的價格促銷銷量，會因為未來幾期的基本銷售額減少而抵銷掉，且過去促銷比例越大造成消費者對於促銷的敏感度效果減弱。最後，特定尿布品牌如幫寶適、滿意寶寶、好奇對於他牌促銷時所減少的商品量，是會受到跨期影響而增加效果的，其他品牌則較無影響。

The e-commerce industry has developed increasingly in recent years, and sales of various types of products have gradually increased. The e-commerce platform retail industry also often implies promotion to attract consumers. Among them, price promotion is more common and easily to be held. In the past, the research discussed about the benefits of price promotions were mostly established on physical stores; the days of price promotions were relatively long, and the time interval between promotions was relatively short, while the promotion of e-commerce platforms gradually tended to limited-time promotions. Compare to the promotions of physical stores, the number of days for e-commerce platforms price promotions may be only One day, the promotion time interval is also shorter, and its benefits are quite different from the benefits generated by the past physical store price promotions.
In addition, when evaluating the price promotion, the dynamic effect must be considered to estimate the benefit more accurately. The dynamic effect includes the discount competitors giving out and the impact of inter-period price promotion. In order to discuss this issue, the author takes the diaper information of A e-commerce platform as an example, and analyzes the five best-selling brands of this e-commerce platform, which are Pampers, MamyPoke , Huggies , Merries , and GOO.N, The SCAN*PRO model in the market response model is widely used as the research basis to discuss the dynamic impact of price discount, and then the mixed effect model is used for estimation.
The results of the study found that although the cross-elasticity of competition among brands is positively correlated, there is almost no significant effect, that indicates that under the condition of short-term promotion, other-price promotion does no effect on specific brands. In addition, after the price promotion, sales will be reduced day by day, and the effect will gradually weaken as the number of promotion days increases. If the inter-period effect is taken into account, the promotion will make negative effect on baseline sales. Therefore, sales that was originally increased in the current period due to price promotion will be offset by the reduction in baseline sales in the next periods. Moreover, the greater the proportion of sales in the past, the consumer’s sensitivity to sales was reduced. Finally, certain diaper brands such as Pampers, MamyPoke , and Huggies will reduce the purchase amount due to other brands’ promotion. It is said that certain diaper brands will be affected by the intertemporal impact and increase the effect. However, other brands are less affected.

學位論文審定書..............................................................................................i
誌謝................................................................................................................ii
摘要...............................................................................................................iii
Abstract.........................................................................................................iv
目錄...............................................................................................................vi
圖目錄......................................................................................................... viii
表目錄............................................................................................................ix
第一章 緒論....................................................................................................1
第一節、研究背景.....................................................................................1
第二節、研究動機與目的..........................................................................3
第三節、研究缺口.....................................................................................4
第四節、研究問題.....................................................................................4
第五節、研究步驟與流程..........................................................................5
第二章 文獻回顧.............................................................................................6
第一節、市場響應模型.............................................................................6
第二節、促銷動態效果.............................................................................9
第三節、掃描促銷模型 (SCAN*PRO MODEL).......................................11
第三章 研究方法...........................................................................................15
第一節、資料介紹...................................................................................15
第二節、資料處理與清洗........................................................................15
第三節、資料探索....................................................................................20
第四節、模型方法....................................................................................26
第四章、研究結果..........................................................................................31
第一節、敘述性統計.................................................................................31
第二節、分析結果....................................................................................34
第五章、結論與建議......................................................................................40
第一節、研究結論...................................................................................40
第二節、研究建議與未來方向................................................................42
參考文獻.........................................................................................................43
一、英文文獻..................................................................................................43
二、相關網站..................................................................................................45

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二、相關網站
MIC 產業情報研究所，評美零售破產潮與臺灣警惕之處，2017 https://mic.iii.org.tw/industry.aspx?id=269&list=5
行銷人，2016
https://www.marketersgo.com/trend/201603/2015_mobile_market/
科技新報，2019
https://technews.tw/2019/01/18/four-major-trends-for-2019-taiwan-e-commerce/
經濟部統計處，2019
https://www.moea.gov.tw/MNS/dos/bulletin/Bulletin.aspx?kind=9&html=1&menu_id=18808