Responsive image
博碩士論文 etd-0611120-101117 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0611120-101117
論文名稱
Title
獨角獸評估方法之探討
The Study of Unicorns Analysis Valuation Methods
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
88
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2020-07-06
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2020-07-11
關鍵字
Keywords
新創企業、網際網路、獨角獸、評價、平台、電子商務
E-commerce, Start-ups, Unicorn, Valuation, Internet, Platform
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5743 次,被下載 146
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5743 times, has been downloaded 146 times.
中文摘要
現今獨角獸公司形成與發展的速度越來越快,在募資的過程中,創投和天使基金的資金加入,使得過去 10年來,全球平均一年就誕生4家獨角獸公司。然而大部份的獨角獸公司皆為新創公司,且商業模式較獨特,使用傳統的公司評價方法會遇到3個主要的問題:盈餘為負、沒有歷史股價和資料、缺乏可比較公司。
因此本研究先使用一般傳統公司評價方法:現金流量折現法、企業價值對稅前息前折舊攤銷前獲利法EV/EBITDA、企業價值對收益法EV/R,再加上新的獨角獸公司評價法:股價對銷貨收入法P/S、每位用戶的平均收入Average Revenue Per User, ARPU以及企業價值/月活躍用戶 EV/MAU來對所選之獨角獸公司做估值。
本研究選取3間公司,分別是Uber優步公司,Amazon亞馬遜公司以及Luckin瑞幸咖啡來評估評價方法。最後得到的結論為除了亞馬遜公司盈利模式己較穩定,其他新創獨角獸公司還是適合用新的獨角獸公司評價法:股價對銷貨收入法P/S、每位用戶的平均收入Average Revenue Per User, ARPU,以及企業價值/月活躍用戶 EV/MAU 來做為評價方法。
Abstract
Unicorns, name given to the start-ups are valued over $1 billion by private to public markets. Nowadays, the development of unicorn companies are getting faster and faster, startups raise capital through rounds of investment of Venture Capital and Angel Funds. Therefore in the past decade, four unicorns were born per year on average.
It is simple to value firms with positive earning, a long history of performance and a large number of comparable when using the traditional valuation models. In this paper, we examine the traditional valuations such as Discounted Cash Flow Approach, EV/EBITDA and EV/R. Plus the new unicorns valuations such as P/S, ARPU and EV/MAU approaches to value negative earnings firms, young firms which only start-up, and few comparable.
Finally, Uber, Amazon and Luckin three companies cases are choose to analyze. In this paper, we finally have the conclusion is that, unicorn companies are still suitable for the new unicorn evaluation approaches except Amazon because of its stable revenue income.
目次 Table of Contents
目 錄
論文審定書 i
誌 謝 ii
摘 要 iii
Abstract iv
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景及動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 文獻探討 3
第四節 研究流程 4
第二章 獨角獸與創投基金介紹 5
第一節 獨角獸 5
第二節 獨角獸公司簡介 5
第三節 獨角獸募資過程與創投基金 9
第三章 評價方法 – 基本理論和評估 13
第一節 現值評價法Present Value Methods 16
第二節 相對評價法Relative Valuation 20
第三節 資產價值評價法Asset-based methods 22
第六節 評價方法的選擇 32
第四章 研究結果與分析 32
第一節 Uber 34
第二節 Amazon 45
第三節 Luckin 瑞幸咖啡 58
第 五 章 結論與建議 68
第一節 研究結論 68
第二節 研究建議 69
第三節 研究限制 70
參考文獻 72
附 錄 77
參考文獻 References
參考文獻
一、 中文文獻
吳締苗,2007,台灣LED上市櫃公司之企業評價模式研究,國立成功大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
張藝錞,2018,未上市櫃企業評價之探討-以非公發公司為例,國立中山大學企業管理學系研究所碩士論文。
二、 英文文獻
Afzal, A., and Himadri, D. (2017). Indian Internet Startups – Comparative Analysis of Unicorns, Great Lakes, Institute of Management.
Anita, K. (2017). Role of Unicorn tag in gaining legitimacy and accessing funds. Conference proceedings of the Academy of Business and Retail Management (ABRM), pp. 119-127
Aswath, D. (2008). The Dark Side of Valuation: Firms with No Earnings, No History and No Comparables , NYU Working Paper No. FIN-99-022
Demers, E.and Lev, B. (2000). A Rude Awakening: Internet Shakeout in 2000. William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
Didier, S., and Spencer, W. (2017). Unicorns Analysis: An Estimation of Spotify’s and Snapchat’s Valuation. ETH Zurich. Master Thesis Department of Management, Technology and Ecnomoics Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks.
Hash, P. (2014). Technology Industry M&A Report, Sikich Investment Banking.
Jansen P., and Perotti E., (2002). Valuation of Internet companies: A Survey of the Evidence. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=310659
Kozberg, A., The Value Drivers of Internet Stocks: A Business Models Approach. SSRN Electronic Journal. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.256468
Kramer, B., Patrick, M. and Harper, N. (2015). The Terms Behind the Unicorn Valuations . [online]Fenwick.com. Available at: https://www.fenwick.com/FenwickDocuments/The-Terms-Behind-the-Unicorn-Valuations.pdf.
Kristian, H. Lomheim., and Ola, T. Oritsland. (2018). Can European Unicorns Defend the High Valuations? A challenge of the post-money valuation approach. Master thesis in Financial Economics
Meichen, A. (2018). Research on the method of predicting the overvaluation of unicorn enterprises in China. Academic Journal of Business & Management. ISSN 2616-5902 Vol.2, Issue 1: 14-24, DOI: 10.25236/AJBM.2020.020103
Pekař, J. (2017). Importance of managerial accounting from high growth nline company valuation perspective, European Financial and Accounting Journal, ISSN 1805-4846, University of Economics, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, Prague, Vol. 12, Iss. 3, pp. 129-144, http://dx.doi.org/10.18267/j.efaj.192
Pekař, J. (2018). Importance of Managerial Accounting from High Growth Online Company Valuation Perspective. European Financial and Accounting Journal 12(3): 129-144.
Petersen, V. Chrisian., Plenborg, T. and Kinserdal, F. (2017). Financial Statement Analysis: Valuation – Credit Anaylsis – Performance evaluation. ISBN: 9788245021028. FAGBOKFORLAGET.
Robert, P. Bartlett, III (2015). A Founder’s Guide to Unicorn Creation: How Liquidation Preferences in M&A Transactions Affect Start-up Valuation. UC Berkeley School of Law.
Ruyu. H. (2018). Analysis on Risks and Countermeasures of Unicorn Enterprises Based on “Diamond Model”, Open Access Library Journal, e4867.
Tim. K., Marc. G., and David W. (2015). Valuation Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies. McKinsey & Company. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
三、 網路來源
被評價公司年報及公開說明書
Luckin Coffee Inc. USSEC ADS Representing, Retrieved from, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1767582/000104746919002450/a2238391zf-1.htm
Bloomberg Terminal彭博終端機
Statista在線統計資料
Amazon Prime has 112 million members in the US (2020). Digital Commerce 360., Fareeha, A., Retrieved 24 Jan 2020, from https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/amazon-prime-membership/
Average EV/EBITDA multiples in the retail and trade sector in the United States in 2019 and 2020, by industry (2020). Statsita., Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1030125/enterprise-value-to-ebitda-in-the-retail-and-trade-sector-in-united-states/
Enterprise Value – EV (2020). Investopedia. Chris, B. Murphy., Retrieved 13 May 2020, from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/enterprisevalue.asp
Facebook, Ad Load, And Revenue Growth (2016). Beyond Devices. Jan, D., Retrieved 8 Nov 2016, from http://www.beyonddevic.es/2016/11/08/facebook-ad-load-and-revenue-growth/
Luckin Coffee Inc. Notice of Extraordinary General Metting. (2020). Luckin official site. Retrieved 19 June 2020, from https://static.luckincoffeecdn.com/web/EGM_Notice_20200619.pdf
Modern Monopolies Dominate the S&P 500 – and much more. Applico. Alex, M., Retrieved from https://www.applicoinc.com/blog/modern-monopolies-dominate-sp-500-much/
Net Operating Profit after Tax (NOPAT) (2020). Investopedia., Julia, K., Retrieved 3 Fed 2020, from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nopat.asp
Number of Amazon Prime Members in the United Stated as of December 2019 in millions (2019). Statista., Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/546894/number-of-amazon-prime-paying-members/
Platform Business Model Definition, What is it? Explanation. Applico. Alex, M., Retrieved from https://www.applicoinc.com/blog/what-is-a-platform-business-model/
Series A, B, C Funding: How It Works (2020). Investopedia. Nathan, R., Retrieved 5 May 2020, from https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/102015/series-b-c-funding-what-it-all-means-and-how-it-works.asp
The ARPUs of the Big Four Dwarf Everybody Else. (2019). Monday Note., Frederic, F., Retrieved 11 Feb 2019, from https://mondaynote.com/the-arpus-of-the-big-four-dwarf-everybody-else-e5b02a579ed3
The Global Unicorn Club (2020). CBInsights., Retrieved from https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies
The Unicorn Economy (2016). Medium., Alexander, C., Retrieved 23 Jan 2016, from https://medium.com/snow-ventures/more-than-500bn-of-wealth-has-been-created-on-paper-by-the-unicorn-economy-f5a56514a0c1
Top 4 Tech Unicorns to IPO in 2019 (2018). Investopedia. Shoshanna, D., Retrieved 19 Dec 2018 from https://www.investopedia.com/top-4-tech-unicorns-to-ipo-in-2019-4581499
Uber Is Going Public: How Today’s Tech I.P.O.s Differ From the Dot-Com Boom (2019). New York Times., Karl, R. and Stephen, G., Retrieved 9 May 2019, from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/09/business/dealbook/tech-ipos-uber.html
Venture Capital Funnel Shows Odds Of Becoming A Unicorn Are About 1% (2018). CBInsights., Retrieved 6 Sep 2018 from https://www.cbinsights.com/research/venture-capital-funnel-2/
Welcome To The Unicorn Club: Learning From Billion-Dollar Startups (2013). TechCrunch., Aileen, L., Retrieved 3 Nov 2013, from https://techcrunch.com/2013/11/02/welcome-to-the-unicorn-club/
What Airbnb, Uber, and Alibaba Have in Common? (2014). Harvard Business Review., Barry, L., Yoram, W. and Megan, B., Retrieved 21 July 2016, from https://hbr.org/2014/11/what-airbnb-uber-and-alibaba-have-in-common
What Big Companies Can Learn from the Success of the Unicorns (2016). Harvard Business Review., Alfredo, D. M., Federico, F., and Franco. Q., Retrieved 14 March 2016, from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305755434_What_Big_Companies_Can_Learn_from_the_Success_of_the_Unicorns
What Is A Unicorn Startup Company? (2019). Feedough.com., Aashish, P., Retrieved 24 May 2019, from https://www.feedough.com/what-is-a-unicorn-startup-company
中信建投:互聯網公司如何估值?(2019),智通財經,檢自:https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/194759.html
電子全文 Fulltext
本電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。
論文使用權限 Thesis access permission:校內校外完全公開 unrestricted
開放時間 Available:
校內 Campus: 已公開 available
校外 Off-campus: 已公開 available


紙本論文 Printed copies
紙本論文的公開資訊在102學年度以後相對較為完整。如果需要查詢101學年度以前的紙本論文公開資訊,請聯繫圖資處紙本論文服務櫃台。如有不便之處敬請見諒。
開放時間 available 2025-07-11

QR Code