外國資金的挹注對於國家的經濟或是金融市場有顯著的益處，自台灣開放外資來台投資，由於限制條件的放寬，外資逐步成為台灣股市的要角，而從過去文獻指出，國家的政治穩定程度將影響外資的投資意願，也直接影響國家的經濟發展。Julio and Yook (2013) 發現選舉前來自外國直接投資(FDI)金額顯著的下降直到不確定性消除，當選情激烈時，外國直接投資下降的金額也擴 ; Francis, Hasan and Zhu (2013) 發現美國總統大選期間，機構投資人的平均持股下降0.76~2.1%，本研究也試圖探討法人面臨台灣總統大選的政治不確定性，其交易行為是否有顯著的變化，當選舉結果確定，法人又是否具備資訊解讀能力，買入受未來政策有正向影響的個股。本研究以2003~2016年四次總統大選作為政治不確定性的代理變數，發現法人在選前一個月開始顯著的賣出手中持股，三大法人中又以外資的賣出行為較為顯著。外資與自營商具有解讀政治資訊的能力，在總統大選過後的20個交易日累積報酬平均而言分別約高1.63%與1.29%，而此現象在投信中不明顯，無法斷定其是否有較佳的資訊解讀能力。

Capital flow is the key factor to influence the economic growth and prosperity of financial market. After extended the limitation, Institutional investors played important role in Taiwan stock market. However, some literatures found the negative relationship between political uncertainty and investment. Julio and York (2013) found FDI flows from US companies to foreign affiliates drop significantly during the period just before an election. The electoral patterns in FDI flows are more pronounced in countries with higher propensities for policy reversals and when election outcomes are more uncertain.
Francis, Hasan and Zhu (2013) found institutions significantly reduce their holdings of common stock by 0.76 to 2.1 percentage points during election years. This paper provides original evidence from institutional investors that political uncertainty during presidential elections greatly affects investment. Using Taiwan institutional ownership data from 2003 to 2016, we find that institutions significantly reduce their holdings of common stock during election years and this phenomenon is driven by foreign investors. In addition, we find foreign investors and securities dealers possess superior information They earn higher return after presidential election.

論文審定書 i
摘　要 ii
Abstract iii
圖次 v
表次 vi
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 台灣總統大選 4
第二節 三大法人背景介紹 4
第三章 文獻回顧與假說 6
第一節 政治不確定性與外資投資的影響： 6
第二節 機構投資者資訊解讀優勢 7
第四章 資料與研究方法 9
第一節 資料與樣本 9
第五章 實證 14
第一節 敘述統計 14
第二節 法人的交易行為與政治不確定性 17
第三節 法人的交易行為與政黨輪替 20
第四節 法人的交易行為回歸檢定 22
第五節 法人資訊解讀能力 25
第六章 結論 30
參考文獻 31

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