本文以分析師盈餘預測資訊分析錯誤估值對合併收購之影響，我們將MB比(market-to-book ratio)分成三個部分:公司特定誤差、時間序列產業誤差、長期價值對帳面(長期成長機會)。實證結果為合併公司的估值誤差高於非合併公司;主併公司的公司特定誤差、時間序列產業誤差比被併公司高;控制公司特有和時間序列產業誤差後，低的長期成長機會主併公司會去購買高的長期成長機會被併公司，可能原因為低的長期成長機會公司能藉由收購高的長期成長機會公司，使公司本身價值更高;公司特定誤差愈大，愈會選擇股票為支付方式，可能原因為主併公司錯誤估值愈高，表示其股票較為高估，依照換股比例，能用較少的張數去進行併購合約;公司特定誤差和長期價值對帳面皆對公司併購活動為正相關，表示個別公司錯誤估值正向差異越大時，併購更可能發生。整體而言，錯誤估值是合併收購活動的一個重要因子。

This paper uses analysts’ earnings forecasts to analyze how misvaluation affects mergers and acquisitions. We break the MB ratio into three components: firm-specific error, time-series sector error, and long-run value to book (long-run growth opportunities). The empirical results show that the misvaluation of firms in mergers is greater than that of firms not involved in mergers. In addition, firm-specific error and time-series sector error of the acquirers are higher than those of targets. After controlling for firm-specific error and time-series sector error, the acquirers with low long-run value to book will buy targets with high long-run value to book. The possible reason is that acquirers with low long-run value to book can increase value by acquiring targets with high long-run value to book. As the firm-specific error increases, acquirers are more likely to use stock as the payment method. The possible reason is that when acquirers’ mis-valuation is high, acquirers can use lower number of shares to acquire targets. Furthermore, firm-specific error and long run value to book have positive effects on the probability that firms are involved in mergers. Overall, our results indicate that misvaluation is an important driver of mergers and acquisitions.

目 錄
論文審定書 i
中文摘要 ii
英文摘要 iii
第一章 前言 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 2
1.3研究架構與流程 2
第二章 文獻探討與回顧 3
第三章 研究假說 7
第四章 資料來源、理論模型與研究方法 8
4.1資料來源 9
4.2理論模型 15
4.3研究方法 16
4.3.1定義Mt和Bt 16
4.3.2模型估計真實價值,V 17
4.3.2.1 Model 1 :市場價值和帳面價值 17
4.3.2.2 Model 2 :市場價值、帳面價值和稅後淨利 18
4.3.2.3 Model 3 :市場價值、帳面價值、稅後淨利和槓桿 19
第五章 實證結果 22
第六章 結論 31
參考文獻 31

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